WASHINGTON — Republican voters in North Carolina cast ballots in greater numbers than four years ago, while Democratic turnout fell. Together, these two factors brought Donald Trump to victory against Vice President Kamala Harris, marking the third time he has won the swing state.

While Trump has consistently won North Carolina, his victory over Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 was much narrower — just over 1%. This year, Trump held a 2.8 percentage point lead when the Associated Press called the race for him at 11:18 p.m. ET, once it became clear that not enough votes remained outstanding in Democratic-leaning areas so Harris can build a lead.

To understand why Harris hasn’t done as well as Biden in the state, consider Nash and New Hanover counties.

Hillary Clinton lost Nash County, located east of Raleigh, but Biden flipped it four years later. This year, Trump won by 2 percentage points when the race was called. Meanwhile, Harris was winning in New Hanover County, home to Wilmington, but she didn’t do as well as Biden in 2020.

CANDIDATES: President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (Green) vs. Randall Terry (Constitution) vs. Cornel West (Justice for All).

WINNER: Trump

SURVEY CLOSING TIME: 7:30 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE RACE:

North Carolina gave Trump his narrowest victory in a swing state in the 2020 election, a contest in which he trailed Biden by about a percentage point but still received less than 50% of the vote . Four years later, the dynamic has become even more complicated.

Democratic presidential candidates have won North Carolina only twice since 1968 – most recently in 2008, when Barack Obama won the state. But the state is one of the fastest growing, with migration from elsewhere in the United States being the main driver of population growth. Many are college-educated professionals – a demographic that increasingly favors the Democratic Party.

Add to that the aftermath of Hurricane Helen, which ravaged the more conservative western parts of the state still grappling with devastation, and that gave Democrats perhaps the best chance they’ll have had years of winning state.

WHY AP CALLED THE RACE: Trump did better in North Carolina than he did four years ago — when he also won the race. Harris, meanwhile, failed to garner as much support as Biden. When the race was called, she would have needed to garner nearly 60% of the remaining votes and there simply weren’t enough votes left in Democratic strongholds for her to reach that threshold.

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