Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin and former GOP representative Mike Rogers fight to win the Michigan one Senate race.

The race has always been considered a toss-up, as the state is split about evenly between Democrats And Republicans and has oscillated between the two parties in recent election cycles. Polls gave Slotkin a modest lead, but nonetheless showed the race was competitive.

With 58 percent of the votes counted, Rogers was ahead of Slotkin with 50.5 percent of the vote, according to projections from BNC News.

Slotkin is a centrist Democrat first elected to a Lansing-based district in 2018, while Rogers represented the same district from 2001 to 2015.

In the presidential race, the vice president Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump were also engaged in a tight race that the networks had yet to announce shortly after midnight Wednesday.

Michigan voters in the last presidential elections

Michigan is one of three “Blue Wall” states, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, that play a crucial role in the Democrats’ presidential victory. Republicans have made gains in rural and industrial areas of the state, while Democrats are counting on wide margins in Detroit and other cities like Ann Arbor and Grand Rapids to achieve statewide victories. ‘State.

In 2016, Michigan voted for Trump by 0.2 percentage points, the first time the state voted Republican since 1988. Four years later, President Joe Biden knocked it over, carrying the state by 2.8 points.

Whoever wins will replace outgoing Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat first elected in 2000. She was last re-elected in 2018, when she defeated John James, now a member of the party. Congressby 6.5 percentage points.

The other Senate seat is held by Democrat Gary Peters, who beat James by 1.7 points in 2020. In 2022, Democrats had a good year in Michigan despite hopes of a fueled “red wave” by Biden’s unpopularity.

Democratic governor Gretchen Whitmer was re-elected that year by more than 10 points, and Democrats also easily won other statewide offices, such as attorney general and secretary of state.

What were the polling averages in Michigan?

The 538 poll results showed Slotkin and Rogers engaged in a tight race. On Election Day, Slotkin led by 3.6 percentage points. A month earlier, on October 4, Slotkin led by 4.7 points.

RealClearPolitics showed Slotkin with a similar 2.3 point lead in the Election Day polling average.

Forecasters thought the two candidates had about equal chances of winning. The Cook Political Report classified it as a pure coin toss.

Abortion and foreign policy among biggest issues

Reproductive rights have emerged as a key issue for voters in Michigan and other post-U.S. battlegrounds. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022.

Although Rogers previously said he opposed abortion rights, he moved toward the center on the campaign trail and did not support a federal ban on abortion. He said he would respect the decision Michigan voters made when they voted to protect abortion rights in 2022.

Slotkin has emphasized reproductive rights throughout his campaign, hoping to use the issue to win over moderate voters.

Foreign policy is also a major issue in Michigan, which is home to a large concentration of Arab American voters in the Detroit and Dearborn area. Polls suggest that these voters have drifted toward the Republicans for a variety of reasons, including culture war concerns.

But the conflict between Israel and Hamasand the Israeli offensive in Gaza, have been particularly important to many American Muslim voters. Slotkin supported Israel’s right to defend itself, but also criticized some of its leaders’ decisions amid the conflict.