With the US presidential election in just one day, expected Bitcoin (BTC) price volatility sees a sharp increase as the political climate tightens.

Data from Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange, shows the implied volatility index for Bitcoin climbing to 63.24% on an annualized basis, its highest level since July. Implied volatility measures expected price movements over a given time period (in this case, over the next 30 days), which provides insight into how widely market participants anticipate prices might fluctuate.

This increase in expected volatility reflects market sentiment as investors prepare for possible uncertainty ahead of the hotly contested U.S. presidential election between former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris.

THE Bitcoin price is currently hovering around $69,100 ahead of the election, up 1.2% on the day, according to data from CoinGecko.

While some anticipate greater volatility, Maria Carola, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange StealthEX, offered a tempered view. Talk to Decryptexplained Carola, “BTC is unlikely to see an increase in volatility before the election, but volatility could increase after the US presidential election, especially if the results are controversial.”

According to Carola, the price of Bitcoin could be affected if the election results become contentious and lead to litigation, with close races in swing states potentially depressing crypto prices.

Before the election, Trump’s chances are reduced took a hit on crypto prediction market Polymarket, with punters reducing his odds of winning the election from over 66% this weekend to just under 58% on Monday. The change in sentiment followed the publication of a new survey by veteran pollster Ann Selzer, who suggested Trump could lose in Iowa, a state he won in the last two elections.

The New York Times/Siena College surveyreleased Sunday, reflects a similarly close race. Such political uncertainty has historically affected Bitcoin; In 2016 and 2020, before the election, Bitcoin fell 10.2% and 6.1%, respectively, before rebounding to higher levels after the election, Carola said.

Carola pointed out an intriguing trend: while Bitcoin often shows a decline before US elections, it has historically increased afterward, noting that “after each election, there has been impressive growth. After the 2016 election, the price rose as high as $1,110, and in 2020, Bitcoin set an all-time high, surpassing $40,000.

Besides the election, other impending events are expected to influence Bitcoin’s trajectory, with Carola highlighting the impending Fed meeting Thursday, with economists anticipate a rate cut of 25 basis points.

Other important upcoming indicators that could affect investor confidence include the U.S. trade balance and ISM services index on Tuesday, labor market data on Thursday and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index on Friday .

This year’s elections mark a turning point for crypto as it becomes an important issue in American politics. “The U.S. is a pretty mature market compared to others,” said Edul Patel, co-founder and CEO of Mudrex. Decryptexplaining that more than 40% of Americans hold crypto in some form. “This is crucial as the country prepares for an election where crypto will take center stage for the first time,” Patel said, adding that “unlike previous elections, both major parties are pushing for more regulations clear and more favorable.

While investors wait for the election resultThey are closely monitoring both political developments and economic indicators, with Carola noting that “the situation in the United States will remain decisive for crypto assets.”