What you need to know: Iran’s recent direct missile launch against Israel marks a shift from its usual proxy war, signaling the expansion of Tehran’s missile capabilities. According to CSIS, Iran’s arsenal includes thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles, the range of which could easily reach Israel.

Most worrying, however, is the progress of Iran’s space program, which could serve as a front for the development of ICBMs. With solid fuel technology and missile expertise potentially enhanced by cooperation with Russia, Iran appears to be moving closer to a viable ICBM and nuclear delivery capability.

-These advances highlight an urgent threat to U.S. and Israeli defense officials as tensions persist in the Middle East.

Iran’s Growing Missile Arsenal: How Close Are They to an ICBM?

Iran’s recent barrage targeting the Jewish state indicates that the regime is preparing to acquire the technology necessary to deploy an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). In April, Tehran engaged in direct war against Israel for the first time. spear more than 300 projectiles in a progressive manner. The Islamic Republic typically uses its proxy groups regionally to launch similar attacks because it is further away from Israel.

However, Tehran’s ability to carry out such a barrage is exemplary of its growing weapons arsenal.

A look at Tehran’s missile arsenal

According to a 2021 Report published by the Missile Threat Project of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Iran possessed thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles with varying capabilities and ranges. Tehran’s stockpile of cruise missiles is the deadliest, as they can fly at several times the speed of sound and reach Israeli territory from Iran in less than fifteen minutes.

The most threatening missiles built by Iran are the Sekkil, KheibarAnd Haj Qassem models. The Sekkil is a medium range weapon able to carry a payload of 700 kg and hit targets up to 1,550 miles away. The Kheibar and Haj Qasem have ranges of 1,240 and 870 miles, respectively.

How Iran’s space program relates to its ICBM quest:

Even though Tehran does not currently have ICBMa weapon capable of hitting targets more than 3,400 miles away, experts believe its space program could accelerate the development of these deadly missiles. Since space launchers and carrier rockets are generally identical to the technology and components required to launch an ICBM, Tehran is potentially using its space program to move closer to fielding these types of missiles.

According to the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies“The Iranian space program has long served as a cover for developing and testing components for an ICBM. As Iran sends missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine, Russia may well return the favor by providing Iran with the tools and knowledge needed to develop its space launch program. Combined with the recent acceleration of Iranian production of enriched uranium, this space launch capability brings the country closer to fielding a nuclear weapon that could threaten American territory.

The turning point in Iran’s quest to acquire ICBM technology occurred in 2020 when the regime successfully launched its first military satellite (Noor-1), carried by its domestically built Qased three-stage space launch vehicle. This remarkable launch demonstrated a solid-fuel capability that had the potential to improve the country’s future missile designs.

Developing its weapons programs at all levels is a top priority for the Islamic Republic, because Iran is the largest proliferator in the region. Once Tehran reaches its nuclear breakthrough time, it will undoubtedly devote its resources to building a capable launch system for this weapon – an ICBM.

THE ongoing war in the Middle East, between Israel, Iran and their proxy groups does not seem to be calming down any time soon. With this in mind, Iran’s efforts to expand its weapons program should be a major concern of U.S. and Israeli officials.

About the author:

Maya Carlinnational security editor at The National Interest, is an analyst at the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has contributed articles to numerous publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post and Times of Israel. You can follow her on Twitter: @MayaCarlin.

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