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Israel’s October 26 military strike against Iran represented a watershed moment not only for the region, but for the entire world. Not only was this the first major direct Israeli military attack against the Islamic Republic, but it was clearly intended to send a strong message to the mullahs in Tehran.

But first, let’s be clear about what that message was: By sending more than 100 planes into Iran’s skies and operating virtually unhindered and seemingly at will for several hours, Israel was essentially telling Iran that ‘He could strike whenever he wanted and do what he wanted. it wants.

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Iran’s Soviet-supplied air defense system, the S-300, was no match for Israel’s F-35 and F-15 attack aircraft. Israel has targeted a wide range of military sites and air defense systems linked to the country’s energy and petrochemical industries. Iranian media have reported that four soldiers defending these sites were killed.

With this attack, the ball is now back in the Iranian court. Tehran must decide whether to respond (again) and launch a new wave of escalating strikes, or let the current crisis pass.

So far, the signs have been mixed. On the positive side, Iranian official media were quick to downplay the strikes, even going so far as to claim they were limited and caused “little damage”. But since then, the regime’s language has become increasingly threatening. claims Iran had a “duty” to respond, and recently suggested there would be “bitter and unimaginable consequences” for Israel. These seemingly contradictory responses to the severity of the Israeli attack may suggest a divided government, pulled in opposite directions by competing factions.

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For its part, Israel clearly thought long and hard about the targets it hit, and almost certainly adjusted them after its initial plans failed. leak to an Iranian website. He was careful not to directly strike oil or nuclear facilities, as both constitute “red lines” that Iran would have felt obliged to respond to. On the contrary, the targets were carefully selected so as not to force Tehran’s hand, and it appears that there was only A civilian victim.

Other factors will undoubtedly influence Iran’s decision. Perhaps the most critical, the Iranian economy is in a dire state and cannot afford a full-scale war with a wealthier and more technologically advanced enemy. And Iranian military officials are certainly aware that Israel’s military is the most powerful in the region, having watched it decimate their allies, Hamas and Hezbollah, in recent months.

Furthermore, Iranian officials also know that aside from their ballistic missiles – which so far have been largely unable to evade Israeli defense systems – Tehran has no weapons that could harm Israel. Its air force, for example, is barely functional and could not compete with the Israelis. Thus, it would enter into a greater conflict with Jerusalem from a position of weakness.

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However, at the same time, Israel must also take into account certain factors that should also give pause. Clearly, his army is undoubtedly tired after operating at a high tempo for more than a year in Gaza and in recent months in Lebanon. The Israeli army has had to be reinforced with civilian reservists, and these men are probably tired of the endless fighting and are eager to return to normal lives.

And although Israel does not comment on its weapons supplies and stockpiles, many analysts have begun to ask difficult questions about whether it is short of munitions, including anti-missile systems on which the Dome depends of Iron. Although Israel produces some of its weapons domestically, it depends on Washington for the majority of its arsenal, and many even question the supply of weapons to the United States. Israel therefore has its own reasons for wanting to avoid full-scale war.

That said, I expect Iran to retaliate and, once again, the chances of a larger war will depend heavily on chance. In other words, if Iran succeeds in causing one of its missiles to escape Israeli defenses, hitting a building or a crowded market, causing significant civilian casualties, Israel will have no choice but to escalate still the situation.

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And the next target on Israel’s target list will be oil and nuclear facilities, which it undoubtedly wanted to attack this time, but which President Biden has spoken about. An attack on oil facilities would likely devastate the Iranian economy, while an attack on nuclear facilities would likely result in an Iranian scramble for a bomb (assuming the attack is not entirely successful). And an attack on either would almost certainly provoke a powerful Iranian response.

Israel and Iran have been moving closer to full-scale war for several years. So far, tempers have been calmer on both sides. But both state governments have hardliners who want nothing more than to hit the other side with considerable force with the intention of causing significant damage. If either side is unable to contain those calling for such strikes, both countries, the region as a whole, and the entire world will ultimately pay the price.

Andrew Richter is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Windsor

National Post

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