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As debate raged this summer over whether President Joe Biden should abandon his re-election bid, shares of Gov. Gavin Newsom soared.

The California Democrat has become a fixture on the national political scene in supported Biden to the end — a renewed profile, long cultivated by Newsomthat made him a serious prospect in conversations about who Democrats could select as replacement candidate.

This possibility was interrupted when the party quickly consolidated behind Vice President Kamala Harris after Biden withdrew from the race in July. And although his loss to former President Donald Trump this week reopens the path for Newsom to run for president in 2028, he emerges from the rubble in a significantly weakened state.

Although further analysis remains to be done on why the national electorate significantly shifted to the right In this election, Democrats will likely be skeptical that another California culture warrior represents their best chance to rebuild the party after voters rejected Harris, who hails from the same San Francisco political circles as Newsom.

Matt Rodriguez, a Democratic consultant who worked on the presidential campaigns of Barack Obama, Dick Gephardt and Bill Bradley, said a Newsom campaign would be limited to an empowering message: “If you didn’t like the first movie, You will love the sequel.”

“Being from California is a bit of a burden on people and it will make Democrats nervous,” Rodriguez said.

Newsom, who categorically denies any interest in the White House even as he appears to lay the foundations for a future campaignreleased a statement this afternoon, just after Harris delivered her concession speech.

“Even though this is not the outcome we wanted, our fight for freedom and opportunity continues,” he said. “California will look to work with the new president – ​​but make no mistake, we intend to stand with states across our country to defend our Constitution and uphold the rule of law.”

Newsom won’t be leaving the spotlight anytime soon. With two years remaining as governor, he is poised to return to the resistance leader than he was during Trump’s first term — a move that could boost his appeal to loyal Democrats even beyond California’s borders.

“What else is there?” If you’re a Democrat today, you wipe your tears,” said Democratic consultant Andrew Acosta. “They’re not going to turn around and say, ‘Well, I guess I have to give Donald Trump a chance.'”

It’s far less certain that the relevance of being Trump’s foil translates into votes outside of MSNBC’s most devoted viewers.

Once the fog of this election clears, Democrats will face a reckoning over what message will move them forward, especially as they continue to lose ground to traditionally Democratic working class and non-white voters . The party found itself in this position in 1988, after a third consecutive defeat in the presidential election, and resumed its rise under Bill Clinton by co-opting conservative messages on crime and the economy.

If the argument for a pivot to the center prevails, then a staunch liberal like Newsom – whose gubernatorial record includes a moratorium on the death penalty and a decree gradually phase out the sale of gasoline cars – could be considered too great a risk for Democratic primary voters.

“There will be a lot of soul-searching,” Acosta said. “California baggage becomes problematic.”

Republicans would be only too happy to head into a general election. Trump regularly made California a punching bag in his campaign, and his closing argument against Harris focused as much on describing it as too extreme on issues such as transgender rights, as well as economic concerns that were at the forefront of voters’ minds.

Jennifer Jacobs, a Republican consultant who has worked across the country this year to elect Trump and GOP candidates, said voters around the world are tired of politics and governance that California has become a symbol: high gas prices and housing costs, widespread homelessness and retail theft, mass illegal immigration.

A Los Angeles Times February Poll found that half of American adults think California is in decline, and nearly half of Republicans said California is un-American.

“A whole nation just said we don’t want to be like California,” said Jacobs, a San Diego native who, like many other state residents, is considering moving to Las Vegas in the coming months.

Newsom himself had difficulty coping with a job approval denial among California voters, who appeared to further repudiate the governor this week when they overwhelmingly adopted an anti-crime measure which he vocally opposed and maneuvered to remove from the ballot.

“He’s from California,” Jacobs said. “I hope he runs for president. This will be the biggest defeat you have ever seen.

Of course, the next elections will take place in four years. There’s still plenty of time for the mood to change, especially if another messy Trump administration turns off voters and pushes them toward Democrats, further upending assumptions about their priorities.

After Mitt Romney lost in 2012 and was unable to undermine President Obama’s multiracial coalition, Republicans concluded that the party needed to be more inclusive of minority groups and pursue comprehensive immigration reform to win the White House. . Trump’s success I destroyed this theory.

“We have to see where this plays out over the course of Trump’s presidency and how much space the opposition party will occupy,” Rodriguez said.

For Newsom, however, fate may be determined. Completely reinventing yourself over the next few years from anti-Trump hero to, well, economic populist is a tall order that would require disappointing allies and the slaughter of the sacred cows of California politics.

It’s not impossible, but his chances of becoming president probably depend more on the mood of the electorate several years from now than on anything Newsom says or does in the meantime.

“Voters will have to be open to him,” Rodriguez said. “There’s not much he can do to change that.”