Based on what Trump and his advisers said on the campaign trail, the omens for Ukraine are indeed ominous.

The measures proposed by the Trump team revolve around:

– Cut or stop US aid to Ukraine

– Force kyiv to accept a peace compromise favorable to Moscow in order to persuade Putin to end or suspend his war against Ukraine.

This could mean:

– Ukraine will be forced to accept an indefinite ceasefire agreement on the current front line, that is to say on its territory.

– Ukraine is forced to cede territories (Crimea, Donbass)

– Ukraine is excluded from NATO membership

– Ukraine is “neutralized” and transformed into a buffer

Imposing such conditions would likely have the effect of:

– Being rejected by Zelensky’s leaders and the majority of the Ukrainian population

– Cause divisions in Ukrainian society – if compromises are accepted – and possibly lead to the collapse of the Zelensky government

– Fuel resentment against the United States and disbelief in the West as a reliable ally/supporter of democracy, state sovereignty and European security.

– Make the reconstruction and recovery of Ukraine more difficult (reparations? investments? etc.)

– Millions of displaced Ukrainians would remain outside their ‘abandoned’ country

– Russia would go unpunished, and what a signal that would send to the world

– Russian influence/hegemony in the neighborhood would be restored – with Belarus and Georgia, and perhaps Moldova, also written off?

Other topics of interest

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– Europe itself would feel abandoned and even more uncertain by an isolationist US MAGA

– The enemies of democracy would feel triumphant and encouraged

What would be the compensation offered to Ukraine to persuade it to make concessions?

The land, for peace, but what peace?

Security guarantees and/or NATO membership?

Membership of the EU?

Factors to consider:

What line will Trump actually take? Still not clear

Will he be a chauvinist who does not want to be seen as having betrayed Ukraine by appeasing Putin?

Who will he appoint his advisors and senior officials responsible for security, management of foreign affairs, etc.? ?

How will the EU and UK respond? Will Trump’s position unite, galvanize or divide them?

Zelensky’s current predicament

Zelensky and Ukraine find themselves in an unfortunate situation that forces the Ukrainian president to swallow his pride and attempt to curry favor with the American president-elect and his allies (e.g. Hungary’s Viktor Orban). But he has no other realistic option and his reaction is understandable.

Its main current missions are:

• Trying to convince Trump’s team not to abandon Ukraine
• Ukraine’s president may consider replacing his ambassador to Washington who alienated Republican leaders during the presidential election.
• Maintaining the morale of your own country and not fueling speculation that it might capitulate

• Gain support from Ukraine’s other partners in the hope that they can influence Trump and maintain their own support for Ukraine

• Persuade outgoing US President Joe Biden to take steps to ensure continued support for Ukraine, at least for the immediate future.

• Persuade Trump, by appealing to his ego, that he could remain in his legacy as the arbiter of a just peace and show that he is not subject to Putin’s influence as he has been portrayed and predicted that he would be.

• Persuade Trump that if he plays his cards right, he could be revered as a powerful leader who saved Europe from itself and reinvigorated NATO by getting the alliance to do its fair share.

• Persuade Trump to encourage investment in Ukraine’s defense and space industries, for example, so that they can have their own satellites for intelligence collection without relying on U.S. and allied resources.

• Persuade Trump that his pivot was his own idea and let him take credit for it. He might say, “That’s all I wanted all along.” It was part of the ‘weave’ to get Europe and Ukraine to defend themselves.”

While many of these suggestions may seem to fall into the category of psychological manipulation, it must be recognized that much of politics falls into exactly that.

Trump and Zelensky have proven themselves masters at managing media perception. This could perhaps be the first point of affinity between the two, which could pave the way for a new relationship between the newly elected “leader of the free world” and the leader of the global struggle for freedom.