The Chiba Lotte Marines’ decision on whether or not to release Roki Sasaki to MLB free agency is expected to be announced in the coming days, Francis Romero reported Thursday morning.

Sasaki turned 23 last week and has only played four seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball. There have been conflicting reports about Sasaki’s chances of leaving Japan this winter, which it looks like could be answered as soon as this week.

There are multiple paths to the big leagues for Sasaki, and the one he is allowed to take could change the future of several franchises.

As he is currently under 25, Sasaki would be subject to international bonus pool restrictions. That means he would be capped at a $2.5 million signing bonus if assigned before Dec. 15 and a $7 million signing bonus if assigned after that date.

Sasaki would then have a 45-day window to negotiate with MLB teams, and the Los Angeles Dodgers would surely be one of them.

However, if Sasaki waits another two years, there will be no limit on the amount of money he or the Marines could make from an MLB team. Yoshinobu Yamamoto took that route last offseason, and he signed a 12-year, $325 million contract with the Dodgers, which also netted the Orix Buffaloes a $50.6 million release fee .

Sasaki would still be subject to the release system until the 2030 offseason, and it seems very unlikely he would wait that long given the hype he has right now.

Sasaki is 30-15 with a 2.02 ERA, 0.883 WHIP and 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings since turning pro in 2019. He also went 1-0 with a 3.52 ERA, a 1.174 WHIP and 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, winning a gold medal with Japan.

The 6-foot-4 right-hander is already a two-time NPB All-Star, having pitched a perfect game and breaking the NPB strikeout record in 2022.

Even if Sasaki isn’t published, that doesn’t mean there won’t be any Japanese on the market.

Tomoyuki Sugano comes to MLB after a successful 12-year career with the Yomiuri Giants. The Chunichi Dragons publish Shinnosuke Ogasawara as well, and he has already received interest from the Mets, San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays.

Their arrival follows the signing of Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga with the Dodgers and Cubs, respectively, last offseason.

Whether or not the Marines let Sasaki go, the wave of Japanese pitchers arriving in MLB doesn’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon.

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