One day before the elections, a report in Axios – somewhat overshadowed by the vote – claimed the Biden administration was making a last-ditch push for a scaled-down defense deal with Saudi Arabia, which would include new security ties without sealing the long-sought normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

While it’s unclear whether such an effort is still on the table after former President Donald Trump’s re-election, the prospect of such a deal is meeting a frosty reception from some leaders on Capitol Hill.

It also appears difficult to reach a more comprehensive agreement in the few months remaining in the Biden administration, particularly in the absence of a resolution on the war in the Middle East, although some lawmakers continue to believe there remains essential to reach a normalization agreement during this period.

Sen. James Lankford (R-OK), co-chair of the Abraham Accords Caucus, rejected reported efforts to reach a more limited agreement with Saudi Arabia.

“The Biden administration’s push for a security agreement with Saudi Arabia, excluding Israel, neglects the critical role of our most powerful ally in the region,” Lankford said in a statement to Jewish insider. “Last peace requires active efforts to integrate Israel into regional partnerships. A real path to peace must prioritize relations between Israel and its neighbors.

Rep. Brad Schneider (D-IL), co-chair of the House Abraham Accords Caucus, told JI before the election that his goal and priority was to build on the Abraham Accords and find a path towards normalization between Saudi Arabia and Saudi Arabia. Israel. Pressed on whether a bilateral U.S.-Saudi deal could gain support in Congress, he said his preference was for a broader regional agreement.

“Without seeing it – and I saw the headlines – we will cross that bridge when they get there,” Schneider said. “I hope we can reach a comprehensive or broader agreement that will bring security and peace to all people in the region. »

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who has been one of the most aggressive supporters of a regional normalization deal in the Senate, has argued that it needs to happen before the end of the Biden administration in order to to receive sufficient Democratic support in the Senate. The Senate must ratify elements of the Saudi Arabia deal that require congressional approval.

He told JI a week before the election that he still believed a deal was possible and needed to be reached in the few months remaining before Inauguration Day.

“Nothing can replace it,” Graham said, asserting that the agreement opens the only viable path to stability in Gaza and the West Bank, through Arab leadership. “All the interests (of regional players) are aligned.”

Despite the short time remaining, Graham said he believed there was an “increasing likelihood” that a deal would be reached before the end of the year “because the alternatives are becoming more and more real, which constitutes a perpetual conflict.”

Stressing how little time remains for the Senate to consider and ratify such a deal, Graham responded: “It only takes a few days to say, ‘Do you want to change the Middle East or not?’ » »

“If Saudi Arabia and Israel can find a plan for the Palestinians that Israel can live with, that gives the Palestinians the dignity, sovereignty and security of Israel, and Saudi Arabia is prepared to ensure that Hamas will not come back, and that they will rebuild Gaza and change the education system, I think you will get 67 votes,” Graham said.

At least a few others seem to agree: Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL) posted on X Thursday: “Now is the time to get Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords. »

A a significant contingent of Democratic senators had, before October. 7, expressed skepticism about the reported terms of the Saudi deal, raising concerns about strengthening military ties with Saudi Arabia and demanding significant Israeli guarantees regarding the Palestinians.

Aaron White, a spokesman for Sen. Peter Welch (D-VT), one of the leaders of the effort, said in a statement: “Senator Welch supports normalization between Israel and its neighbors and firmly believes that such agreements must also guarantee a viable Palestinian state. »

William Wechsler, senior director of the N7 Initiative at the Atlantic Council, pointed out to JI that “lame duck periods are not often marked by diplomatic initiatives.”

“I’m skeptical,” Weschler said about progress being made on a major or more limited deal in the final months of President Joe Biden’s term. “There are a lot of dominoes that need to fall for the circumstances to be right for that, and some of those dominoes involve war.”

He added that regional governments – many of whom “secretly, or not so secretly, welcomed the return of the Trump administration” – might be “reluctant to hand a diplomatic victory to the outgoing Biden administration if they believe that there is a risk that this will backfire on them. the new Trump administration.

Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told JI that a limited agreement on Saudi security could be a “modest victory that the administration would like to achieve” during its time. remains, but the Saudis “have to wonder if they (would get) more Trump” and wonder “if the Saudis want to give the Biden team a victory”, given Biden’s sometimes rocky relationship with Riyadh.

Saudi Arabia and Israel may also be interested in finding ways to curry favor with the Trump team, rather than the outgoing Biden administration, he said.

But Schanzer also said he didn’t think there was “anything particularly controversial” nationally — outside of “certain segments of the Democratic Party” — about a limited deal with the Saudi Arabia, which could designate it as a major non-NATO ally and provide additional advances. weapons.

Schanzer added that, given recent Israeli victories in the war against Hamas and Hezbollah, and the possibility of an end to the war in the coming weeks, “full normalization appears to be back on the table.” .

He said Trump’s re-election could facilitate a return to more enthusiastic negotiations with Saudi Arabia, and argued that Saudi Arabia and Israel have a higher level of trust in the Trump team.

Weschler said it would be difficult to gain congressional support — so needed for a more limited deal — in the lame duck case.

The administration might be able to finalize some elements of a more limited pact without congressional approval, Wechsler said, but Saudi Arabia’s main demands would require ratification by the Senate, which could be difficult if it was not accompanied by normalization with Israel.

He said there was “obviously a reality to (Graham’s) logic” of reaching a deal before the end of Biden’s term, but warned that other parties may not be ready to act with the same urgency. Wechsler said the United States often seemed more eager for a deal than Israel and Saudi Arabia themselves, and that a deal had become even more difficult since October 7.

Weschler acknowledged that it would be harder to muster enough Democratic votes under a Trump presidency to ratify the normalization deal, but said some Democrats might support it based on its terms, “so I don’t think it is completely rejectable at the start.”

Schanzer said it is “feasible” to finalize and ratify a normalization deal before the end of the year, but that doing so “would require significant political will (and) concessions from Republicans who have likely already the feeling that they don’t need to compromise.

It also depends on whether the Saudis “want to reach a deal.”

Under the Trump administration, Schanzer said he could envision a scenario in which enough Democrats vote to ratify a normalization deal. “The devil will be in the details. If it’s a good deal for Saudi Arabia, a good deal for Israel, then I imagine a “yes” from the Democrats, if there are “concessions for the Democrats, whatever they may be.” , Schanzer said.

He also suggested that after Tuesday’s election defeat, Democrats might take a “take stock” of their “fervent anti-Israel” and “anti-Saudi sentiment.”

“I think this election could have been a kind of wake-up call on some policies, and opposing a regional peace deal doesn’t seem to me to be the wisest policy,” Schanzer said.