“Are you in a better situation today than you were four years ago?” On October 28, 1980, just one week before the presidential election, Ronald Reagan asked voters this question. The then governor of California won a landslide victory against President Jimmy Carter. Since then, it has become the electoral question par excellence.

Trump asked for it several times during his rallies in the last week of the campaign, while warning the The American economy was on the verge of depression. The reality, however, is that the president-elect inherits a robust economy, with unemployment near historic lows and inflation – the main challenge of Joe Biden’s presidency – largely under control. The main problem remains the explosion of the public deficit and debt.

Trump claims the economy is a disaster, but that when he takes office he will fix it “quickly.” So quickly, in fact, that it’s already settled. Thanks to the recent monetary policies of the Federal Reserve, the United States is achieving what economists call a “soft landing” — control inflation without triggering a recession or massive job losses, a term borrowed from the space race.

The Republican used distorted October data — in which only 12,000 net jobs were created due to Hurricanes Helen and Milton and the Boeing strike — to attack Biden’s economic management, joking that it figure suited Walmart better than the United States. Trump called them the “worst numbers” in history, despite the fact that during his term, in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, there was a month in which 20.5 million jobs were lost. been lost. And before the pandemic, in February 2019, there was another month where only 5,000 jobs were created. In his last full month in office, December 2020, 243,000 jobs were lost. His term ended with fewer jobs than when he entered the White House.

Under Biden, jobs — propelled by the pandemic recovery and a subsequent consumer boom — have been created every month of his presidency, totaling 16 million new jobs. The unemployment rate, which stood at 6.7% at the end of 2020, fell to 4.1% and has remained below 4% for 26 consecutive months, the longest streak in half a century. In the 1980 debate, just after asking the first question, Reagan – aware that unemployment had increased under Carter – added another: “Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there is four years?

GDP growth of 15.5%

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) fell 2.1% in the final year of Trump’s term and grew 5.8% during his four years in office, according to IMF data. During Biden’s four years, the economy grew 15.5%, according to the IMF’s forecast for this year. In the third quarter, it grew at a rate close to 3% per year. Even if the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021 are excluded to account for distortions, the comparison still favors Biden.

Inflation has been Biden’s main economic Achilles’ heel, and it largely explains Trump’s landslide victory in the election. Prices rose more than 20% during Biden’s term, compared to less than 8% during Trump’s four years in office. External factors were once again crucial. The pandemic, supply chain disruptionsand the war in Ukraine have led inflation to peak at 9.1% in June 2022, the highest level in four decades – echoing the inflationary surge that largely cost Jimmy Carter his presidency.

Trump has repeatedly claimed at rallies that he would end inflation. However, the problem has largely been resolved. Prices rose just 2.4% in the past 12 months, compared with 2.5% in the 12 months before Trump hit the pandemic, according to Reuters data. Using the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE index, inflation is now at 2.1%, just a tenth of a percent below the central bank’s price stability goal.

Although inflation has fallen, prices have not returned to pre-inflation levels, resulting in still weighs on voters, many of them remember how much it cost to dine out or go shopping four years ago. However, citizens often overlook the other side of the equation: wages have also increased. In fact, real personal disposable income – adjusted for inflation – increased by 10%, according to Reuters data. Of course, this is an average figure, so some households may not have felt this improvement.

As for household net worth, strongly influenced by real estate prices and stock market developments, it has also increased significantly. According to Federal Reserve data, household net worth stood at $164 trillion at the end of the second quarter, the most recent data available. That’s $32 trillion more than at the end of 2020. Indeed, one of the biggest beneficiaries of this increase in wealth during Biden’s term has been staunch Trump supporter Elon Musk, whose net worth increased by more than $50 billion. The stock market has surged nearly 50% under the Biden administration and continues to break records.

In reality, America’s greatest economic challenge lies in its public finances. The deficit stands at 6 to 7 percent of GDP, and the federal debt has increased by more than $7 trillion during Biden’s term (although it grew even more under Trump), according to Federal Reserve data . Trump ran for office without any credible proposals to solve this problem.

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