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How did the election polls go? Pollster says one thing is ‘very clear’
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How did the election polls go? Pollster says one thing is ‘very clear’

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President-elect Donald Trump made a resounding political comeback, largely outperforming the polls expected him to do so for the third election in a row.

In the days leading up to election day, survey after survey showed him in a neck-and-neck race with the vice president Kamala Harris. State officials predicted results could take days. Lawsuits filed by Trump-aligned groups have been ready to challenge the results. Ultimately, the race was announced before most the country woke up on Wednesday. Trump won, and it wasn’t particularly close.

But the results of this election clarified an increasingly popular theory about why polls underestimated Trump’s performance, according to the Pew Research Center’s vice president for methods and innovation. Courtney Kennedy: Democrats participate in polls more than Republicans.

“Rather than saying ‘oh, gee, we don’t know what’s going on,’ no, no, no, it’s very clear,” Kennedy told USA TODAY in an interview. “This election answered the question of whether the underlying trend that Democrats are more likely to take polls than Republicans…is still here or whether it has disappeared. Answer: It still is current situation, and in some parts of the country it may have disappeared.

Polls have left people shocked in previous elections

Before TrumpFormer President Barack Obama beat poll predictions by defeating Mitt Romney in 2012.

In 2016, a popular pollster FiveThirtyEight showed Hillary Clinton leading Trump 45.7% to 41.8% on Election Day. In 2020, President Biden led Trump in 8.4 percentage pointsa large lead in what turned out to be a close race.

The Pew Research Center previously reported that the number of pollsters has increased and polling methods have become more diverse since then. the 2016 elections.

Kennedy said Pew has had some success in its own polls with diverse methods. A major annual survey conducted in the spring revealed some societal trends that played out on election night, including young men’s leaning toward Republicans and the growing proportion of Republicans across the country.

Which polls were right and wrong in this election

Kennedy said polling was better this election than in previous years, and understanding its limitations can help pollsters make more adjustments in future elections.

“There was progress, but it wasn’t perfect,” she said, explaining that some pollsters were considering making weighted adjustments to account for the lack of Republican turnout. “It’s not a silver bullet, it doesn’t make the survey perfect, but it helps reduce the magnitude of this pattern of non-response that we’re fighting against.”

She also pointed out that Trump’s outperformance in the polls may be large on a cumulative national scale, but that the final numbers may show that individual races were more accurate. She pointed to California, where votes are still being counted, and expects those numbers to come closer to what polls suggest for the state.

Polls are not only used to show voters’ support for candidates, but also to see what they care about most in this election. Polls have overall shown that the economy was the biggest problem for them and they favored Trump to help solve it. Kennedy said the polls also clearly showed dissatisfaction with the Biden administration and the direction the country was heading.

But marking a change from the Biden administration This was something Harris struggled to do during her short presidential campaign.

“This election has shown that polls capture important issues, what motivates people, moods and feelings about candidates… better than predictions,” Kennedy said.

Contributor: Phillip M. Bailey, Joey Garrison

Kinsey Crowley is a trending news reporter at USA TODAY. Contact her at [email protected] and follow her on X and TikTok @kinseycrowley.