A senior Texas Border Patrol official said the organization was “absolutely” preparing for a growing number of immigrants trying to enter illegally and that crossings had already started to increase in recent days, likely from people waiting in northern Mexico.

“Unfortunately, we are reactive. Can only be proactive to a certain extent. So we rely a lot on our information and our relationships with foreign governments,” the official said.

Jessica Vaughan, director of policy studies at the Washington-based Center for Immigration Studies, said President Joe Biden being a “lame duck” until Jan. 19, 2025, could give Mexican cartels that smuggle immigrants greater freedom and giving them a sense of “can,” At least in theory, do as much as possible before Trump comes to town and cracks down.

“We may see an attack at the border of people trying to get under the fence. And we know caravans are coming,” Vaughan said.

Trump promised, as he did in 2016 and 2020, to consolidate the border. This time around, Trump has pledged to stop fentanyl from entering the country. deploy troops at the US-Mexico border and warned of mass expulsion.

Immigrants outside the country are likely looking at Jan. 20, 2025, as a deadline to enter the country before or will face Trump’s tightened border security next.

Department of Homeland Security officials met in the days leading up to this week’s election to discuss how to respond to a possible surge of immigrants at the southern border, according to NBC News.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s DHS agency would not comment on its process for transition planning and immigration management over the next two and a half months, but a spokesperson told the Washington Examiner that the law would be applied.

“Even as border crossings remain at historic lows, CBP remains vigilant in the face of ever-changing migration patterns,” a spokesperson wrote in an email. “Migrants must not believe the lies of smugglers. The fact remains: the United States continues to enforce immigration law. Individuals who enter the United States illegally between ports of entry will continue to be promptly expelled.

Historical immigration trends during winter and transitions

Historically, the number of illegal immigrants apprehended between ports of entry has declined during the winter months, including in 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016, when former Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Trump been elected. according to government data.

Immigration levels fell to a 45-year low under Trump and were low during the 2020 pandemic due to global travel restrictions.

In the second half of 2020, Trump lost the election to President Joe Biden, and pent-up demand for migration from struggling Latin American economies led to an increase in migration.

The United States experienced an influx of illegal immigrants between Biden’s election and his inauguration, as well as immediately afterward, according to CBP. statistics.

“It started increasing before Biden even took office because of the anticipation of what was going to happen,” Vaughan said.

Transition from Biden to Trump

Arrests of immigrants who entered the United States illegally from Mexico between ports of entry over the past year fell from 250,000 last December to fewer than 60,000 in September after the Biden-Harris administration began detaining and deporting immigrants, as well as persuading the government. The Mexican government will do more to deter immigrants.

Biden signed an executive order in June directing CBP to quickly expel immigrants at the border, making the asylum process more difficult to initiate.

The three-and-a-half-year border crisis under the Biden-Harris administration has also eased with the White House creating other “legal pathways” for immigrants to enter the country by plane or by plane. Obtain parole after passing an interview at a higher education institution. port of entry.

But no matter what the United States can or wants to do to deter illegal immigration, it must get help from Mexico — substantial help, according to Eric Ruark, research director at NumbersUSA, a nonpartisan immigration organization. immigration in Washington which advocates a reduction in immigration levels.

“A lot of it depends on the Mexican president…whether the Mexican government feels it’s in their interest not to see a big surge before Trump takes office, or whether they’re going to take a more approach, I suppose, conflicting.” with the Trump administration on this,” Ruark said in a phone call. “They certainly have some weight in that regard. They could demand that, to better control the flows, we need trade concessions or something like that.”

Vaughan warned that because the journey of immigrants to Mexico and Central America can take weeks to reach the border, it is less likely than the immigration the United States has seen since 2021 of people migrating from the eastern hemisphere intensifies by January. , quite simply because time may not be enough.

“If you’re sitting at home in Ecuador or West Africa or India, I think the reaction will be to stay put, because it takes months to get through the smuggling system and be able to get here and to time before Trump. closes the border,” Vaughan said.

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The number of immigrants crossing the Darien Jungle, a small part of the territory that connects South America to Central America, is about a third of the number crossing it a year ago at this time , according to CBP.

CBP added that DHS officials hold regular meetings to discuss border security operations, including contingency and preparedness plans.