Electric cars have made it through just one Donald Trump presidency. With market forces fueling broader change, they will likely survive a second term. But if electric vehicle incentives disappear next year under Trump, what’s next for Tesla, especially since it has been one of the biggest beneficiaries? There’s no clear answer here, but we have some ideas from industry experts.

Welcome back to Critical materialsyour daily roundup of the news and events shaping the world of electric vehicles.

Also on today’s agenda: The U.S. Department of Energy fast-tracked a $475 million loan to a major battery recycling company before Trump took office in January. And why America’s clean energy boom won’t come to a screeching halt under the new administration.

30%: what’s next for Tesla?

Tesla has benefited the most from incentives to purchase and manufacture electric cars and batteries put in place by Biden. Incentives helped Tesla achieve aggressive price cuts while maintaining profitability and helped it earn hundreds of millions of dollars per quarter from the sale of carbon credits.

As we’ve known for years, Trump is not a big fan of electric cars. However, Tesla CEO Elon Musk energized his campaign and helped him get re-elected – for reasons we won’t discuss today.

Now, as Tesla moves toward artificial intelligence and robotics, Musk wants to create a “Department of Government Effectiveness” that could speed up regulatory approvals for its Robotaxi business. So its passenger car division could take a back seat, but wouldn’t necessarily be hurt if Trump cuts incentives for electric vehicles, experts told InsideEVs.

“Tesla has a substantial advantage over most other automakers in manufacturing costs, so Tesla vehicles have a much larger margin and can better withstand the elimination of the tax credit,” Ed said Kim, President and Chief Automotive Analyst. AutoPacific studies and research company.

However, he added that Tesla’s competitors could suffer. “(The reduction in credits) will have an immediate effect on electric vehicles becoming more expensive, particularly for people who lease electric vehicles, because a loophole in the tax credit rules effectively allows any electric vehicle , whatever its price or origin, to benefit from the tax credit when it is rented.”

Leasing and financing have boosted sales of electric vehicles. But this advantage for buyers could now disappear.

This is all speculative at the moment, but Jessica Caldwell, head of research at Edmunds, said that if Trump removes consumer incentives, an alternative mechanism could be in place to continue the transition to electric vehicles.

“From the beginning, Musk has made it clear that he wants to see the electric vehicle market succeed beyond Tesla, so he may try to influence a new incentive structure that continues to support broader adoption of electric vehicles in the United States,” Caldwell said.

Car manufacturers are global companies. In many overseas regions, adoption of electric vehicles is much broader than in the United States. So when automakers build their roadmap, they don’t think about the next four years. They think decades into the future.

While it may seem like Tesla is moving away from electric vehicles and toward robotics, don’t count out its core lineup just yet. An improved Model Y, the world’s best-selling car in 2023, is on the way. So Tesla’s EV play, beyond Robotaxis, will remain strong for the foreseeable future.

60%: DOE offers $475 million loan for battery recycling company

The Biden administration is trying to put in place as many clean energy incentives as possible before Trump takes office in January.

The U.S. Department of Energy on Thursday finalized a $475 million loan to battery recycling company Li-Cycle. The company will use these funds to construct a lithium-ion battery recovery facility in Rochester, New York. The investment will help generate 825 construction jobs and more than 200 permanent jobs once the plant is built.

Recycled materials from this plant will help power 180,000 electric vehicles per year, the DOE said in a statement. press release. This could replace 71 million gallons of gasoline per year, equating to more than 633,000 tons of annual CO2 emissions savings.

The Biden administration is being smart, laying the groundwork to protect clean energy programs from possible backsliding under Trump. By finalizing a wave of clean energy loans and grants before the end of the year, they are effectively locking in the incentives, making it much harder for a new administration to undo them in January.

This is one reason why the clean energy boom will not be limited during Trump’s second term in the White House.

90%: Clean energy programs will be ‘impossible to repeal’

Photo by: Rové

Even though America voted for Trump this week, Biden’s clean energy programs are here to stay. Most clean energy investments have been directed to Republican Southern states, where federal money helps build massive factories that support thousands of jobs.

Here’s more about it from Fast business:

“The jobs and economic benefits have been so great in red states that it’s hard to see an administration coming in that says we don’t like this,” said Carl Fleming, a partner at the law firm McDermott Will & Emery, who advised the Biden White House on renewable energy policy.

“You could see a new administration come in and they could very quickly start to cut or restrict budgets or restrict the freedom of agencies to do certain things related to funding,” he said.

“But I think it’s a smaller subset of the broader renewables market that really relies on them, so I don’t think it would have a shocking effect.”

Electric cars are just one piece of the clean energy puzzle. Through the IRA, the Biden administration awarded billions to companies focused on solar, wind and green energy, as well as major projects aimed at modernizing the power grid and transmission lines to meet energy demand future.

Repealing it would mean preventing a mighty river flowing downstream from reaching the sea. You can create barriers and diversions, but the water will find its way.

100%: Are you considering purchasing an electric vehicle before the incentives end?

Photo by: Jeff Perez / Motor1

Now might be the perfect time to go electric. Of course, the transition to clean energy will likely continue under Trump’s second term, but these unbeatable leasing and financing offers on electric vehicles could disappear next year. My estimate is that the current offers could last until at least early January. So, are you considering accelerating your electric vehicle purchase before then? Let us know in the comments which model you’re considering and why.

Do you have any advice? Contact the author: [email protected]