In 2018, roughly halfway through President-elect Donald Trump’s first term, the Illinois Senate passed a bill aimed at preventing “the weakening of Illinois’ environmental and labor regulations in response to a weakening of federal regulations,” according to a report from Illinois Environmental. Council press release.

Some state rules are directly tied to federal rules, so if the federal government had reduced regulations, the idea was to prevent that from happening here.

“This bill seeks to preserve the status quo of Illinois’ current safeguards as the federal administration continues to roll back environmental standards,” the CEI said at the time. “The Illinois Baseline Protection Act would prevent any current Illinois standard from being weakened below the federal standard already in place.”

The bill, SB2213, however, went nowhere in the House.

As I’ve been telling my subscribers for some time now, some Democrats are considering “Trump-proof” state laws, perhaps as soon as the November veto session, although no text is not currently circulating, so you may have to wait. .

Gov. JB Pritzker was asked about this topic last week and said he had met with his senior staff about the concept. He also “talked to other governors around the country about things they are considering doing.” California’s Democratic governor has already called a special legislative session.

Pritzker wouldn’t say whether he had any ideas, but he cited “health care and reproductive rights” as possible topics.

Illinois unions, led by the Operating Engineers Union Local 150, have been addressing this issue well before the election. Although no legislation has yet been drafted, they said it’s a game-play situation for what would happen if the federal government repealed the Davis-Bacon Act, which sets prevailing wages in government contracts.

They also plan to create a state version of the National Labor Relations Act, which forms the basis for all federal labor laws on organizing, collective bargaining and the right to strike. Some companies, including Elon Musk’s Tesla, have challenged the constitutionality of the law.

I asked House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch, D-Hillside, for comment on what might happen in the near future.

“This week has proven that the work we have done in Illinois matters more than ever, and I am grateful that we have taken action to safeguard the rights and values ​​that are now under extreme threat in many neighboring states . We will approach this veto session with renewed determination to ensure that our fundamental freedoms remain protected.”

But the reality of Illinois is also beginning to set in.

The Governor’s Office of Management and Budget released its five-year budget projections late last month, and it was bad news for the state, to the tune of a projected deficit of $3.16 billion for the next fiscal year, which begins July 1.

“The ability to fund new programs will be severely limited,” the budget office warned.

One caveat: Expenses and most revenue projections are made based on current laws and past trends. The economy can change, as can laws and practices.

The budget office also reiterated something we all learned during the budget impasse years ago: “[P]ending cuts cannot be implemented on a large scale. Areas such as debt service on state general obligation obligations, pension payments, Medicaid and areas covered by consent decrees account for about 40 percent of state general fund spending on education – primarily support basic education (e.g., evidence-based funding and transportation reimbursements), state university operations, and need-based assistance – encompass another 24 percent of the budget.

This would mean a 16% reduction in what can be reduced, without taking any further action.

Trump is much improved state election results here (cutting his losing margin in half in his last two elections) doesn’t create the type of political environment you want when you’re facing a large deficit in the next fiscal year – especially if you’re a governor with the eyes fixed on the White House.

Although Illinois state and local Democrats appear to have retained nearly every office they held, their earlier exuberance contrasted poorly with Trump’s final numbers. And that can sow fear among lawmakers. Fearful lawmakers may not want to risk a tax hike.

Pritzker himself downplayed his own budget office’s projection, saying the annual forecast was “wrong every year.”

Yes, we’ve seen some crazy projections. But the pandemic’s wild budget swings have mostly ended, making projections a little easier.

Pritzker told reporters that his administration has “defied” dire predictions each year and pledged to introduce and pass a balanced budget next year.

Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and CapitolFax.com.

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