Uganda, for its part, is hoping for better news after frustrations with Joe Biden over LGBTQ+ rights, just as South Sudan is hoping its transition woes can benefit from better funding.

For Kigali and Kinshasa, they may want to see if Trump has a better way to resolve the conflict in eastern Congo, while Tanzania will check if Washington opens its purse to pursue the Lobito corridor.

For Somalia, a transitional security mission will need U.S. support, as will tensions with Ethiopia over a controversial maritime memorandum of understanding with Somaliland.

Trump defeated his rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, win back the seat he lost to Joe Biden in 2020. And we can wait to see whether he will return as a changed man or as an old self.

His presidency during the first term had shown that he would be unpredictable, even if the common thread through it all had been “America first.” His words were difficult to take clearly or seriously.

And all eyes will now be on Trump, once he officially takes power in January, to see how he shakes up policies targeting African countries like Kenya, or maintains a course while shifting priorities.

“Given all these demographics that make Africa more important to a second Trump administration than the first, another Trump term would likely focus on improving trade with the continent,” said Vin Weber, a former representative American from Minnesota and former advisor to several countries. Republican campaigns for the presidency.

“There is already ample evidence that the rivalry between the United States and China will intensify on the African continent, particularly with regard to the United States’ growing focus on critical minerals and their supply chains. supply. »

Mr. Weber says a second Trump administration would be likely to confront terrorist threats forcefully, strengthening the U.S. Africa Command and supporting African counterterrorism efforts. During the first term, he had withdrawn his ground troops in Somalia, who were there to support local forces. Biden reversed the decision four months after taking office.

Another big moment to watch will be the 2025 Reauthorization of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) whose bipartisan process is currently underway in the American Congress.

“While Trump is more inclined toward bilateral trade deals than sprawling ones, Agoa finds broader and deeper support in the business communities of both continents. So there is no reason to believe that Trump would seek to weaken the trade deal,” Weber said. .

“One in four people on the planet is predicted to be African by 2050. This demographic – and economic – opportunity is attractive to Trump, particularly given his growing emphasis on competition with China , which is making its own foray into the continent. »

In Nairobi, American support for the multinational security support mission (MSS) in Haiti led by Kenya, provides guarantees on climate change as well as support for UN agencies with multifaceted humanitarian roles in the region. Republicans had blocked approval of U.S. funding for Haiti.

Biden had promised $300 million, but has so far only provided $100 million for the MSS, with the rest still pending in Congress. Trump’s victory also came with a majority victory for Republicans in the House, who will now control the House for the next three years. They will play a key role in approving or rejecting any money destined outside the country.

Trump, of course, criticized Biden’s funding of overseas projects while ignoring domestic issues.

Blocking funding for the MSS could cripple its intentions and force Kenya to delay new deployments that had been planned by January.

Biden had canceled Trump’s trade deal with Kenya and instead initiated negotiations with Kenya for his own guy. These talks continued this year. But those discussions are now unlikely to be completed before Biden leaves office. And Kenya is unlikely to sign a bilateral trade deal with the US government within the next year, analysts warn.

For Kenya, this also means a longer wait for a trade deal that seemed likely in the early Trump years (2016-2020).

The entry into force of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in 2021 and the likely renewal of Agoa pose a dilemma for the US-Kenya trade deal, according to trade experts.

“They’re looking to protect and nurture made in America and that means the focus on improving opportunities to access the American market, which was a major accomplishment of President Bush Jr. (George W. Bush), “is increasingly taking a back seat,” said Dr. Mukhisa Kituyi, former Secretary-General of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and former Minister of Commerce of Kenya.

“And I see, whoever wins, that Africa will lose its importance in the economic and other international commitments of the next American governments. »

This means that administration changes in the United States have made Kenya wait eight years to reach a trade deal. Biden’s move from a free trade area (FTA) agreement to a Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (Stip) agreement was a different perspective than Trump’s, suggesting that the new leader will not continue down this path.

Kenya’s former principal trade secretary, Johnson Weru, said Stip may have died a natural death, both because he contradicted the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCTA) agreement and the World Trade Organization (WTO), which its peers in the region had warned.

“Kenya risks being caught up in international law. Because they (the United States) are supposed to provide trade preferences to developing countries in accordance with WTO Article 24,” Weru said.

“It grants preferences to developing countries before granting them to third parties. Even though Trump sanctioned the FTA through Congress, Stip did not under Biden.”

Under the MFN rule, WTO members must apply the lowest tariffs they apply to products from one country to products from all other countries.

However, WTO members can impose higher tariffs if they apply these non-reciprocal tariffs to all countries.

“I see Trump returning to the FTA he initiated with President Uhuru Kenyatta in 2020,” Mr Weru said.

The United States suspended Rwanda from Agoa in 2018 after Kigali banned second-hand clothing from entering the United States. This is subject to change.

As President Yoweri Museveni sent his message, the Trump presidency promises to be particularly critical for LGBTQ+ Americans and will likely benefit Uganda if Trump extends his dissatisfaction with LGBTQ activities beyond the United States.

“I congratulate Trump on his election to the presidency of the United States. I look forward to working with him as I have done before with his predecessors,” President Museveni said in his X.

Last year, President Biden suspended Uganda from Agoa over the enactment of Uganda’s Anti-Homosexuality Act (AHA), which he called a “tragic violation of universal human rights.”

The World Bank, whose decisions the United States has great influence over, subsequently suspended lending to Uganda due to rights violations.

Trump has pledged to pass a federal ban on gender-affirming care for minors and to redefine gender at the federal level, so that male and female (as assigned at birth) are the only sexes recognized genres.

Trump’s agenda also calls for national “Don’t Say Gay” policies targeting LGBTQ+ students in schools and promises to “keep men out of women’s sports.”

As a senator, his running mate, JD Vance, introduced a bill last year threatening to jail doctors who treat young trans patients.

On the campaign trail, Trump promised to repeal federal regulations on greenhouse gas emissions, blasted the Green New Deal as the “biggest scam in history” and pledged to boost production of fossil fuels.

However, experts say his administration will need to consider the danger of these actions as the climate is global.

The Trump administration will realize that it cannot ignore these concerns.

If the United States relinquishes its climate leadership, phasing out fossil fuels and stopping global warming will be difficult, if not impossible, not only over the next four years, but also for future U.S. administrations.

Trump’s term will likely build on important existing initiatives, including some launched by other Republican presidents and currently benefiting Kenya and Tanzania.

Efforts such as those led by the Millennium Challenge Corporation and its agreements with African countries, as well as the creative initiatives of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, are expected to continue under his administration.

For U.S. companies doing business on the continent, a second Trump administration might be expected to streamline processes, rules and regulations to make doing business easier – and faster – than in previous years.