MOSCOW, November 9. /TASS/. Russia’s oil production could increase from 531 million tonnes in 2023 to 540 million tonnes five years ahead of schedule, in 2030, and remain at this level until 2050, according to a revised energy strategy until 2050 obtained by TASS, which was submitted to the Russian Government.

Initially, the draft strategy, also seen by TASS, suggested that Russia would reach production of 540 million tonnes by 2036, under the targeted scenario. The draft document also contained only two development scenarios of the country’s fuel and energy sector, a targeted scenario and an inertial scenario, while the revised variant of the document adds two more scenarios, a stress scenario and a “technical potential”.

The stress scenario suggests a significant decline in production figures in the fuel and energy sectors amid shrinking export opportunities and an overall deterioration in external conditions, the document said. In particular, according to the stress scenario, Russia’s oil exports could fall to zero by 2050. At the same time, the “technical potential” scenario includes the highest possible levels of performance depending on the level current and projected technical fuel and energy sectors, infrastructure restrictions, although the economic viability and reasonableness of potential actions are not taken into account.

The targeted scenario suggests that oil exports will increase slightly compared to 2023, from 234 million tonnes to 235 million tonnes by 2030 and remain at this level by 2050. Oil supplies to the domestic market will increase by 297 million tonnes in 2023 to 305 million tonnes. tonnes over the period 2030 to 2050.

Oil refining could total 283 million tonnes in 2030-2050 compared to 275 million tonnes in 2023. Exports of petroleum products could reach 141 million tonnes in 2030-2036 and 146 million tonnes in 2050 compared to 132 million tonnes in 2023.