Deploying North Korean troops to help Russia in its war against Ukraine is unlikely to have a significant impact on the fighting on the ground, but could affect security interests in Asia, Europe and elsewhere, say analysts.

Growing military ties between Moscow and Pyongyang are a major concern for Washington and Brussels as Russian leader Vladimir Putin continues his efforts to build an anti-Western alliance.

“The conflict is becoming international,” said Pascal Dayez-Burgeon, a North Korea expert and former French diplomat in Seoul.

But while he said he understood Western concerns about the risk of a possible extension of the war, which is in its third year, he played down any immediate threat to the global security architecture.

“I actually have a hard time seeing North Korea presenting a threat of escalation,” he said, calling the North a “little dictatorship.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on Friday that Russia planned to send North Korean troops into combat against his country as early as Sunday. He claimed North Korea was training 10,000 troops to support Russia.

South Korea, NATO and the United States say thousands of North Korean troops are already training in Russia.

Russian lawmakers on Thursday voted unanimously to ratify a treaty with North Korea that provides for “mutual assistance” if either side faces aggression. South Korea has warned that it “will not stand idly by” in the face of the deployment of North Korean troops.

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“No triple alliance”

“We are no longer in a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but between Russia, North Korea and Ukraine,” said Marie Dumoulin of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

But analysts say it is unclear how North Korean troops will be used in what has become Russia’s war of attrition against Ukraine, adding that North Korean forces have not combat experience.

“I don’t think that sending a few thousand North Korean troops, whose level of training we don’t know, will make a big difference on the battlefield in operational terms,” ​​Dumoulin said.

“In any case, 10,000 soldiers is not that many,” adds Isabelle Facon, of the Foundation for Strategic Research, based in France.

Russia has a long history of ties with the Stalinist state. Moscow and the North have grown closer since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with Seoul and Washington saying North Korea had sent weapons for use in the conflict.

Analysts say the new “strategic partnership” between Moscow and Pyongyang is in line with Putin’s efforts to reshape the global security architecture and build an alliance to undermine U.S. dominance.

This week, Putin hosted around 20 leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to the BRICS summit, the biggest diplomatic event in Russia since Putin invaded Ukraine.

But experts said they did not think China and Iran would become directly involved in Ukraine.

“There is no Triple Alliance or Triple Entente,” Dayez-Burgeon said, referring to the power blocs before the outbreak of World War I in 1914.

“That would certainly be the case if China or Iran entered the conflict, but that’s simply not the case,” he said, adding that China is focused on Taiwan and Iran has vital interests in the Middle East.

Security on the Korean Peninsula

But if the two Koreas become involved in Ukraine, it would affect security on the Korean Peninsula, analysts say. Seoul has suggested it may revise its long-standing policy that prevents weapons from being sent directly to Ukraine.

“The Ukrainian theater risks becoming the first direct test of Korean military capabilities since the 1953 armistice,” wrote Darcie Draudt-Vejares, a Korea expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“This development could fundamentally shift the security balance on the Korean Peninsula, especially if North Korea gains combat experience while testing its advanced weapons systems.”

Dumoulin stressed that under the “strategic partnership” agreement, Russia could provide support to the North if tensions increase with South Korea.

Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed the defense deal in June. Under Article 4, both countries agree to provide military and other assistance if either country is attacked.

“But what we do and how we do it is our business,” Putin said this week.

Andrew Yeo, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said North Korea’s support for Russia could encourage states like Iran to further strengthen ties with Moscow.

“Unlike Beijing, Moscow is ready to pursue a bloc policy and embrace the idea of ​​a new Cold War,” he added.

“Russia is more isolated than China and therefore sees more benefit in bringing non-aligned or anti-imperial countries together.”