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Trump’s promise to repeal the IRA could slow the massive energy transition
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Trump’s promise to repeal the IRA could slow the massive energy transition

President-elect Donald Trump doesn’t think climate change is a problem and wants the government to stop spending money on what he calls a “hoax” and a “scam.” Now the question is whether he will — or even can — halt the momentum toward a clean energy industry that received a major cash infusion under President Biden.

When Trump takes over the White House in January, he will find a country retooling its power grids to accommodate clean energy, deploying electric vehicles and building wind turbines and solar farms.

But the new Trump administration could significantly slow down this transition. by attempting to block unspent federal dollars for climate action and repealing rules aimed at reducing carbon emissions. Both tactics would further risk delaying the United States in its climate goals at a critical time for the planet and harming the emerging climate technology and clean energy sectors, experts said.

The Biden administration in 2022 passed the Inflation Reduction Act, the largest spending package in U.S. history focused on combating climate change. He authorized hundreds of billions of dollars in federal loans, grants and tax breaks to boost the clean energy sector.

The uncertainty caused by the Trump administration could be “stifling” for the emerging clean energy and clean technology sectors, which face stiff competition from rivals in China and Europe, said Daniel Burge, energy solutions research analyst at ABI Research.

“It’s a young sector that needs stability,” Burge said. “Other countries have benefited from much more pressure in their sector. »

About three-quarters of the $105 billion allocated for nationwide climate-related grant programs included in the IRA will already be spent or obligated before the end of Biden’s term, law school experts have estimated. Columbia University. Yet at least $14 billion remains unallocated.

Trump promised during the election campaign to “end” IRA and cancel unspent funds of the climate law, calling it “the biggest scam in history”. The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment Thursday.

Trump has not outlined a plan to reduce emissions, instead promising to increase oil, gas and coal production. He also said during a presidential debate with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris that wind and solar energy developments were taking up too much land.

Conservative groups criticized the legislation as ineffective in its goal of reducing inflation. The Heritage Foundation Project report 2025the controversial conservative plan for a second Trump term, called for canceling IRA funds, as Trump had promised during the campaign, and repealing its tax subsidies.

“The next administration should … push for legislation to completely repeal the subsidies recently passed in the tax code, including dozens of credits and tax breaks for green energy companies,” it says. the Project 2025 report.

Massachusetts has received more than $1 billion in IRA grants and tax credits, according to state officials.

“These are transformative pieces of legislation that truly benefit our state,” Gov. Maura Healey said Wednesday, referring to the IRA and other federal infrastructure spending programs passed under Biden that will benefit the transition to clean energy. “We want to work to keep this going.” »

At least 500 clean energy jobs for electricians, mechanics, construction workers, technicians and more were created in Massachusetts thanks to the law, according to a report. analysis by Climate Powera climate advocacy group.

The IRA put the United States on a much faster path to reducing its emissions – doubling or even tripling the pace it had previously followed – and generated great enthusiasm for the economic benefits of this reduction. energy transition.

Climate scientists say it’s past time for the United States to reconfigure buildings, homes, businesses and transportation infrastructure to avoid more greenhouse gas emissions. This transition must take shape this decade, climatologists warnor the planet risks much worse and irreparable changes.

Under the Biden administration, Massachusetts-based startups were expanding Climate technology solutions have raised more than $12 billion in venture capital, up from $2 billion during Trump’s first term, according to Pitchbook data.

In Massachusetts, the IRA also saves consumers money through tax credits for electric vehicles and retrofitting homes to be more energy efficient.

Electric vehicle charging stations at the new Kennedy Middle School in Natick. Lane Turner/Globe Staff

Even so, the United States is behind schedule on its goals of cutting emissions in half by 2030 and reaching “net zero emissions” — no new emissions added — by 2050, said Jesse Jenkins, an assistant professor. in engineering at Princeton University.

“Instead of a president committed to further accelerating this progress, we wait to see to what extent recent gains can be defended against repeal,” Jenkins said.

Regardless of what happens in Washington, Healey has promised to stay the course on Massachusetts’ climate goals, which she has made a centerpiece of her administration.

“We’re full steam ahead and we’re not taking our foot off the pedal,” Healey said.

Sublime Systems, a Somerville company that makes cement with electricity instead of fossil fuelsreceived $87 million from the Inflation Reduction Act for a demonstration plant in Holyoke, with work on the site currently underway. Leah Ellis, the company’s chief executive and co-founder, said the grant was “a really big deal” as the startup tries to convince the slow-moving construction industry to switch to its greener product.

But looking at the political horizon, “there’s a lot of uncertainty and doubt and fear,” Ellis said.

The Trump administration could, for example, try to repeal tax breaks on electric vehicles or attempt to block climate spending that has not yet been spent. Additionally, Massachusetts has yet to award any of the approximately $60 million for construction of electric vehicle charging stations that the state obtained through the Infrastructure Act of 2021, another proposed bill. significant spending adopted under Biden.

Spencer Pederson, senior vice president of public affairs for the National Electrical Manufacturers Association, said he was concerned that all of the IRA’s provisions were potentially “on the chopping block.” The trade group will argue to Congress that closing the pipeline of grants, loans and tax breaks for clean energy will only hurt America’s manufacturing sector.

“These provisions brought domestic manufacturing back to the United States,” Pederson says. said. “They have created jobs and helped strengthen our national energy economy. »

Some are optimistic that the benefits of the IRA will prove too great for Republicans to give up.

“A lot of this money is going to Republican areas that see huge economic benefits,” said Paul Bledsoe, a lecturer in the Department of Public Administration and Politics at American University and communications director for the task force. on climate change from the White House under President Bill. Clinton. “I’m just skeptical of (Trump’s) ability or willingness to end the IRA.”

Policy experts also said halting spending already authorized by Congress would likely be logistically difficult.

“But that doesn’t mean they won’t try,” said Michael Burger, executive director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia Law School.

Trump has said he wants to restore a previous presidential power to block spending, known as impoundment, even though that power was revoked by Congress in 1974. At the time, President Richard Nixon refused to release funds allocated by Congress for government programs he opposed.

It’s possible the Trump administration could try to revive it, said Robert Bradner, a federal attorney and partner at Holland & Knight. However, most legal scholars believe the president is obligated to distribute the money, said Bradner, who previously spent more than a decade in government.

Yet even an attempt could be enough to scare businesses and block progress, experts say.

“Perhaps the greatest ability the Trump administration will have to erase (climate action) is simply to slow things down,” Burger said. “The administration might just be looking to stop things.” »


Erin Douglas can be contacted at [email protected]. Follow her @erinmdouglas23. Aaron Pressman can be contacted at [email protected]. Follow him @ampressman.