(LONDON) — Saturday’s parliamentary elections in Georgia were seen by all parties as a defining moment for the country’s 3.8 million people.

For one of the country’s most famous men, the election results could mean the difference between incarceration and freedom.

Former President Mikheil Saakashvili, 56, has been imprisoned since 2021 for abuse of power and organizing an attack on an opposition lawmaker – charges he says are politically motivated.

“My imprisonment is purely political and everyone knows it,” Saakashvili told ABC News in an interview conducted from his prison cell via intermediaries. “Once the policy changes, it will be over.”

Saturday’s elections will pit the Moscow-leaning Georgian Dream government against several pro-Western opposition parties, including the United National Movement, founded by Saakashvili in 2001.

One of the UNM’s priorities, if it comes to power within a pro-Western coalition, will be to free Saakashvili.

The campaign was riddled with allegations of political interference and violence by GD. The opposition hopes to mobilize historic turnout to defeat what it sees as GD efforts to undermine the vote.

“The only recipe for combating electoral interference is to erect the wall of massive participation at the polls,” Saakashvili said.

People power has proven to be a serious problem for GD in recent years. Mass protests foiled the government’s first attempt to introduce a foreign agents registration law – which critics say was modeled on Russian legislation used to criminalize Western-leaning politicians, activists and academics – in 2023.

The government pushed the bill through again in 2024 despite new and intense protests.

Opponents view Bidzina Ivanishvili, GD founder, former prime minister and Georgia’s richest man, as the mastermind behind what they see as the government’s authoritarian, pro-Moscow pivot, although the billionaire does not hold office. official position.

Saakashvili said Ivanishvili – who made his fortune in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union – and the GD party “will go as far as it takes” to retain power this weekend, “but the question will be, once they have lost the elections, whether the government structures will follow. the oligarch’s orders,” he added, referring to Ivanishvili.

Ivanishvili and his party present the vote as a choice between war and peace. They say a new Western-led government would put Tbilisi back on the path to conflict with Russia, reigniting the bloodshed of the 2008 war that saw Moscow consolidate its occupation of 20% of Georgian territory.

“This comes straight from the Russian playbook,” Saakashvili said of the DG’s warnings. “Blaming the victims for the attacks against them. For us, real security and peace are associated with belonging to Euro-Atlantic structures, and membership in the European Union is within our reach.” Georgia was granted EU candidate status in 2023.

Latest polls suggest that GD will become the largest party, but will fall far short of a parliamentary majority. A grand alliance of pro-EU and pro-NATO opposition parties could, however, surpass the 50% threshold to form a new government coalition.

“Polls are a very dangerous thing in authoritarian systems,” Saakashvili said. “The recent example of Moldova shows that elections are compromised by massive vote buying, and this will surely be the case in Georgia. »

“On the other hand, those who tell pollsters that they vote for the government are very often not telling the truth,” he added.

Saakashvili’s imprisonment in 2021 marked the lowest point in a 20-year political roller coaster period. Saakashvili went from being the highly regarded leader of Georgia’s pro-Western Rose Revolution in 2003 to being defeated by President Vladimir Putin’s Russian military machine in 2008.

In 2011, Saakashvili’s government was itself accused of violently suppressing protests, with the president soon also embroiled in human rights and corruption scandals.

Constitutionally barred from serving three consecutive terms, Saakashvili left Georgia after the 2013 presidential election and was convicted in 2018 in absentia on abuse of power and other charges.

A Ukrainian citizen – his citizenship was revoked by President Petro Poroshenko in 2017 before being reinstated by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in 2019 – Saakashvili later served as governor of the Odessa region from 2015 to 2016. Zelenskyy appointed Saakashvili to the head of the executive committee. of the National Reform Council in 2020.

Saakashvili returned to Georgia in October 2021 as the country prepared for local elections. He was arrested and detained by the police.

His domestic and international allies have repeatedly condemned his imprisonment, raising concerns about his mistreatment and poor health. U.S. and European officials also urged Tbilisi to do more to ensure fair treatment for Saakashvili.

He was hospitalized while in prison – once due to a hunger strike – and his gaunt appearance during a videoconference hearing in 2023 prompted Zelensky to summon the Georgian ambassador to kyiv to file a complaint.

Saakashvili largely blames Putin for his current situation. But he believes that Moscow is not necessarily able to prevent a pro-Western pivot in Tbilisi.

“In 2008, war broke out after the West sent a clear sign of weakness by refusing Georgia and Ukraine membership in NATO,” Saakashvili said.

“If there is no hesitation this time, Russia is so stuck in Ukraine that it has no motivation to start a new hot war elsewhere. »

“We have no other choice,” he replied, when asked about the risks of disrupting the Kremlin. “The only other alternative is to return to live within the Russian sphere of influence,” he said.

As for his own plans, if he is indeed released, Saakashvili describes himself as “a regional rather than a purely Georgian leader.”

“I will help any next non-oligarchic government in its transition by giving it advice,” he added, but said he would not seek any official position of power.

“And of course, I am a Ukrainian national and it is my duty to support Ukraine.”

Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.