Contrary to popular belief, Europeans have long wanted to imitate America; a combined set of states with freedom of movement, a single currency and a united government. This was the unspoken objective when the European Union was born after the Second World War. But so far the dream has not come true.

Recently, it received another blow, which pushed the vision of a fully politically and economically integrated bloc even further than it already was.

“They have woken up to the idea that borders are about protecting those inside the border,” said Ben Habib, former deputy leader of Britain’s right-wing political party Reform UK and CEO of First Property Group PLC. “We would not have had an immigration problem in Europe if we had borders.”

European Union flags fly in front of the European Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, March 1, 2023. (Reuters/Johanna Geron/File photo / Reuters Photos)

The block has grown in size and complexity in the decades since its creation. However, this growth was also accompanied by friction and a lack of cohesion, which prevented a complete political merger of the member countries. In short, it is a work in progress, with some devotees believing the goal will manifest soon.

Now with president-elect Donald Trump Returning to power could put the EU under more pressure as it prepares to carry out the largest expulsion of illegal immigrants in history.

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Donald Trump gestures during a campaign rally at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on November 4, 2024. (CHARLY TRIBALLEAU/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Perhaps a lesson for the United States, the political goal recently took a step backwards when it comes to freedom of movement across the bloc, as some EU member states reintroduced border controls, putting thus ending free movement for a while in key parts of the bloc. The states concerned are France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Slovenia, Denmark and Sweden.

Immigrants demonstrate against the government’s decision to toughen migration policy, in front of the Portuguese Parliament in Lisbon on October 25, 2024. (Patricia De Melo Moreira/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Concerns about terrorism, illegal immigration and foreign interference appear to play a significant role in this shift.

Late last month, France announced it would extend its temporary border controls until April 20, 2025, citing serious threats to public order, public order and internal security. The country suffered from terrorism for almost a decade, until 2015, with attacks on the Bataclan theater, the offices of Charlie Hebdo magazine and others.

Italy, Turin, Piedmont – December 22, 2018: The back of a man carrying the flag of Europe during the flash mob for the United States of Europe in Piazza San Carlo. (Stefano Guidi/LightRocket via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Another major reason is the slowdown in the economy and labor market across the EU, particularly in the two largest economies. Germany and Francerespectively. In the 15 months to June, the former saw zero positive quarterly growth and a rise in unemployment from 5% in 2022 to 6% in September. France saw slightly positive growth, but unemployment reached 7.3% in the second quarter, compared to 7.1% at the start of 2022.

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France has overtaken Italy at the top of the ranking of countries tackling the budget. Its 5% budget deficit for 2025 is considered too optimistic, meaning it will likely be higher and well above the mandatory 3% limit.

French police check vehicles to prevent the entry of refugees into the country as vehicles cross the Belgian border into France, in the Dunkirk district, November 1, 2024. Border controls expand into space Schengen, which aims (Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu via Getty Images / Getty Images)

“When Germany needed labor, it opened the doors and welcomed an influx of workers,” says Konstantinos Venetis, director of global macroeconomics at GlobalData TSLombard in London. “Now that the economy is not doing very well and unemployment is rising, politicians tend to take tougher measures.” In particular, the government seeks to deport or deter undocumented immigrants from working undocumented or even entering the country.

However, the introduction of border controls poses problems. It boils down to wasting time, and therefore money, for traveling business executives, tourists and truckers, Venetis says. “Anything that takes longer is not good for the economy,” he says. “Delays lead to higher costs.” Anyone who has doubts about this should think about how long it takes to go through immigration formalities when flying to another country. It may take hours more.

Now it seems that travel across Europefrom Spain to Germany, will involve stops at the French and German borders. Imagine how much costs will increase for transport companies; ultimately, consumers will pay more.

Some doubt that border controls can help suppress terrorist activities. “We tend to forget that terrorism comes from people already based in the country,” says Daniel Lacalle, chief economist at Madrid-based investment firm Tressis. “It’s basically trying to solve one problem by creating another.”

The flags (LtoR) of Germany, Canada, France, Italy, Japan, Great Britain, the United States and Europe are on display for a meeting of foreign ministers of the G7 at the town hall in Münster, western Germany, on November 3, 2022. (Photo by Wolfgang Rattay/Pool/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Lacalle says what is needed to combat terrorism is not more border controls but rather an integrated pan-European police system focused on counterterrorism. If this was possible in the United States, it is much more difficult for the EU, which is in many ways a family of national states intent on retaining sovereignty. This means keeping their own grip on the national police.

What complicates matters is that these temporary border controls may not be so temporary. Echoing Ronald ReaganLacalle says: “There is nothing more permanent than temporary government action. » In other words, these border controls are likely to last.

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It seems that the European Union knows that it must change if it is ever to emulate the United States. Indeed, last week, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, invited EC members to a dinner on November 8. The invitation focused on the need to get the EU functioning competitively as quickly as possible.

“The situation is very worrying,” the invitation says. “Over the past 20 years, the EU’s share of global GDP has halved. We must act now. The Union’s competitive survival is at stake.”

Other topics discussed include strengthening relations with the United States, which the invitation describes as “essential.” He also discussed bilateral relations, security/geopolitics, including Ukraine, and global challenges.

Not everyone is this gloomy or pessimistic. “It’s possible that this seventy-year European project is coming to an end,” says Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at New York-based currency specialist Bannockburn Global Forex. “I’m more optimistic.” He sees the recent fiscal crisis in some major economies in the bloc, such as France and Italy.

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Since the 1950s, crises have been the driving force behind further European integration, Chandler says. “Seventy years after the start of the European project, the union remains a work in progress,” Chandler said. “Fiscal union is what the EU is missing.” In other words, to move further in integration, taxes and public spending must be consolidated across the bloc rather than limited to sovereign member states.

Still, border controls send a message, Lacalle says. “This does not mean the end of the EU, but it means the impossibility of a United States of Europe,” he says.