Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was among the first world leaders to congratulate Donald J. Trump before he was officially declared the winner of the contest. 2024 United States presidential election.

In an article on XNetanyahu hailed Trump’s “huge victory” as “the greatest comeback in history,” sharing a photo of himself, his wife Sara and Trump at Mar-a-Lago in July.

that of Netanyahu congratulations to Trump have been echoed by other members of his far-right coalition, including new Defense Minister Israel Katz, following Netanyahu’s recent dismissal of Yoav Gallant due to a breakdown in “trust.”

But while senior Israeli officials have welcomed Trump’s return as a boost to their Middle East policy, they still face President Joe Biden’s lame duck over the next ten weeks before Trump’s inauguration. Trump as the 47th US president on January 20, 2025.

Although Biden has limited power, he could still influence the course of events in the Middle East.

It wouldn’t be the first time. In 2000, when Bill Clinton was already in his de facto lame duck phase as his second term drew to a close, he hosted the Camp David peace summit. Although these negotiations ultimately failed, they were an important effort.

Barack Obama in his final days, he broke with traditional American policy by abstaining from a UN vote in late 2016 that condemned Israeli settlementssignaling a shift in the long-standing approach to resolutions critical of Israel.

More recently, in late 2020, Donald Trump took steps that foreshadowed the future, reducing US troop levels in Afghanistan and Iraq and signaling a possible withdrawal under Biden. He also negotiated the Abraham Accordsguaranteeing the normalization of Morocco’s relations with Israel, and imposing new sanctions on Iran.

But when it comes to Biden, experts say he’s unlikely to act to end Israel’s wars in the Middle East.

“Even when Biden had power, he failed to use American influence, and now, like a lame duck, Netanyahu would not take any of Biden’s demands seriously,” Karim Emile Bitar, professor of international relations at Saint Joseph University of Beirut. , said The new Arabic.

Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), explained that Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon are as much Biden’s as Netanyahu’s, with the United States providing support . more than 18 billion dollars in weapons, ammunition, logistics and intelligence support since October 7, in addition to annual aid of $3.8 billion.

“Israel could not have killed so many people in Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon without America’s active support,” he said. TNA.

But in analyzing what Biden could potentially do to end hostilities in the region, Timothy Kaldas, deputy director of the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, explained that Biden still has leverage to suspend the military aid in concert with its European allies, especially after Israel ignored the United States. warnings about Aid to Gaza. This could push Israel to negotiate.

“The last thing Biden should do to further cement a disastrous foreign policy legacy would be to let Trump inherit an uncontained and raging Netanyahu who is expanding conflicts in the region,” he said. TNA.

Since the start of the Israeli war against Gaza and Lebanon, the Biden administration has been supply Israel with billions of weapons and providing logistical and intelligence support while simultaneously calling for a ceasefire. Biden’s approach to Israel’s wars appears to have weakened US influence in the region.

What Trump would do inherit the Biden administrationIf things do not change, Israel would be at war on at least two fronts: in Gaza, to destroy Hamas, killing more than 43,000 Palestinians so far, and a second front against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has killed 3 000 dead.

In the meantime, direct military exchanges between Iran and Israel have fueled tensions in the region, while Yemen’s Houthis continue to attack commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

Diplomatically, with the exception of last year’s brief Gaza truce in November, the Biden administration’s efforts, including U.S.-backed ceasefire proposals for Gaza and Lebanon, have produced no results.

In this context, Israeli leaders likely see Biden’s lame duck period as an opportunity to escalate the conflict.

“Netanyahu outwitted and outsmarted Biden, putting all his eggs in Trump’s basket, and his gamble paid off. Even if Biden uses leverage, Netanyahu will refuse to end the war, hoping that Trump will will give the green light to act freely,” notes Gerges.

But there is more. that of Netanyahu political survival This depends on prolonging the war to avoid national and international accountability, as the International Criminal Court (ICC) can issue an arrest warrant at any time for the Prime Minister and other Israeli leaders.

“Netanyahu is using the conflict to protect his political career, sidelining those like Gallant who do not prioritize his survival. This perpetuates conflict to serve personal interests despite its dangers,” Kaldas said.

While for senior Israeli officials, Biden may already represent the past, Trump’s record in the Middle East during his first term may not provide enough context for future policy as the region has changed dramatically in due to the ongoing wars in Israel.

During his first term, Donald Trump revealed himself to be a faithful ally of Israelinstituting a number of key policy changes that greatly benefited Tel Aviv. He moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, recognized the Syrian Golan Heights as part of Israel and announced that Israeli settlements in the West Bank were not a violation of international law.

The actions break with decades of U.S. foreign policy and have been welcomed by many in Israel, even as they have angered the Palestinians and the international community. Trump also negotiated Abraham Accords which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab countries.

However, Trump has said he wants to end the endless wars and avoid any further U.S. political or military involvement in conflicts during his term. However, how it might achieve this in the Middle East remains unclear.

One of Trump’s potential strategies could be to strengthen or revitalize the Israeli-Saudi normalization processaccording to Bitar.

“Trump could try to circumvent Saudi Arabia’s demand for a Palestinian state by making the usual promises, claiming there is a path forward while pressuring the Saudis to re-engage with Israel. This could be part of a US-Saudi package including security guarantees and military cooperation,” he said.

However, another scenario suggests that Trump’s approach could allow Netanyahu to pursue aggressive policies with minimal restraint.

Gerges says Netanyahu should feel more confident because of the close ties between his circle and Trump’s, which includes hawkish voices that align ideologically with Israel’s Likud-led coalition. This convergence of interests could easily push Israel and the United States into a broader conflict with Iran and its regional allies.

In this context, Bitar added that while Trump is not generally considered a warmonger, he has shown a willingness to use force, and many around him would use his narcissism to advance their own agendas.

“Netanyahu hopes that Trump will give him the green light to do whatever he wants in Gaza, in the West Bank, in Lebanon. But his biggest prize is neither Hamas nor Hezbollah. It is Iran’s nuclear program. C “is a regime change in Tehran.” said Gerges.

This scenario, however, would worry Arab leaders, including Saudi Arabia, because it would affect the stability of the entire region, Bitar believes.

It could also affect Trump, who is seen as a businessman with close ties to Arab leaders, many of whom have welcomed his election victory.

Moreover, the United States’ active involvement in wars in the Middle East does not correspond to its foreign policy, which should prioritize economic competition with China.

But because of his transactional nature and his relationship with Netanyahu, Kaldas suspects that Trump’s approach could lead him to advocate for further Israeli annexation of the occupied Palestinian territories as a way to push for an end to hostilities in Lebanon.

Although Trump is more likely than Biden to prioritize ending the fighting in Lebanon, this strategy poses a real risk of complicating the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Dario Sabaghi ​​​​is an independent journalist interested in human rights

Follow him on Twitter: @DarioSabaghi