After beating Utah in spectacular fashion last weekend, it almost seems like BYU is this year’s “team of destiny” in college football. In nine games, no one has managed to defeat the Cougars.

Of course, there are still three weeks of football remaining to determine BYU’s fate in 2024. However, advanced metrics currently point to a happy ending for the Cougars.

ESPN Analytics uses a number of formulas – including the Football Power Index (FPI), record strength and more – to project specific outcomes for each college football game. I looked at the algorithm’s projections for each remaining Big 12 competition this season to determine how the year-end rankings might shake out — and who will likely play for the conference championship on Dec. 7.

Below are the current four league leaders in the Big 12 and their respective remaining schedules. Each game includes the current percentage chance ESPN Analytics gives the team to win that day, with cumulative overall and conference records tallied based on what the algorithm decided.

I have performed this same exercise twice now, with analyzes from both three weeks ago And last week each predicting a BYU-Iowa State Big 12 championship game. Last week’s analytics even had BYU finishing the regular season at 12-0.

Injuries, coaching changes, new match results and a number of other factors will certainly cause these percentages to fluctuate over the coming weeks, but for now we’ll stick with what they say today today.

While you should never fully rely on such data, any Cougar fans who consider themselves analytics nerds may want to look into traveling to Texas in early December.

BYU

Current record: 9-0 (6-0 in Big 12)

Remaining calendar

• Against. Kansas — 61.1% chance of winning
• In the state of Arizona… 50.1%
• Against. Houston — 84.8%

Projected final recording based on analysis: 12-0 (9-0 in the Big 12).

Colorado

Current record: 7-2 (5-1 in Big 12)

Remaining calendar

• Against. Utah — 74.9% chance of winning
• In Kansas… 52.5%
• Against. Oklahoma State — 80.4%

Projected final recording based on analysis: 10-2 (8-1 in the Big 12).

Iowa State

Current record: 7-2 (4-2 in the Big 12)

Remaining calendar

• Against. Cincinnati— 70.0% chance of winning
• In Utah – 60.2%
• Against. Kansas State — 52.2%

Projected final recording based on analysis: 10-2 (7-2 in the Big 12).

Kansas State

Current record: 7-2 (4-2 in the Big 12)

Remaining calendar

• Against. Arizona State — 74.3% chance of winning
• Against. Cincinnati— 73.5%
• In the State of Iowa – 47.8%

Projected final recording based on analysis: 9-3 (6-3 in the Big 12).

Projected Big 12 Championship Game Based on Analytics

12-0 BYU vs. 10-2 Colorado