The expected choice of President-elect Donald Trump Senator Marco Rubio And Representative Mike Waltz as indicated respectively by his Secretary of State and his National Security Advisor China will be at the center of American foreign policy, escalating tensions between the United States and China.

Both Rubio and Waltz are staunch China hawks. In fact, Rubio was sanctioned twice by Beijing in 2020 and could still be barred from entering China.

Naming Rubio and Waltz is “a strong sign that Trump’s foreign policy priority will focus first and foremost on China,” said Neil Thomas, a Chinese politics researcher at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. Although the short-term focus will be on finding a solution to wars abroad, “over the next four years, China – by far – will be the main concern,” he said .

This matches what Waltz himself said. Earlier this month, he co-wrote in The Economist that the United States should “urgently” end conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East so that the United States can “finally focus its attention strategically where it should be: countering the greatest threat the Chinese Communist Party. »

Rubio called China “the threat that will define this century” and supported a bill to prevent the importation of products made by China’s Uyghur minority. Waltz, who said the United States was engaged in a “cold war” with China, called on the United States to boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing.

Trump has pledged to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese goods. Experts say he will likely act on tariffs early in his term, providing an easy victory that he can act on unilaterally to show he is keeping a key election promise. This will severely disrupt US-China relations and US businesses. So experts say Trump’s business allies will likely do a lot of lobbying to limit tariffs to a few key sectors.

In addition to tariffs, the United States has a “huge economic warfare toolbox” that the Trump administration could use, according to Thomas, including more sanctions on Chinese companies and expanding controls for export to more industries.

But billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk could be a moderating voice for a softer approach to China in all of this. Musk has deep business interests in China and could become a key broker in the dialogue between Trump and China’s Xi Jinping.

Telsa depends on China for its production and as a key consumer market. Musk is a well-known name in China and gets the red carpet from Chinese authorities during his visit.

Musk could become “the main and intermediary interlocutor” between Xi and Trump, according to Ian Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group. “I think Elon would definitely be interested.”

The Chinese government “will definitely” contact Musk to see how it can use him to influence Trump, Bremmer added.

About half of all Tesla electric vehicles are made in China, and Musk has received benefits from the Chinese government rarely given to foreign players. Musk even echoed Beijing’s views on geopolitical issues, saying Taiwan is “an integral part of China.”

Either way, Beijing is bracing for a volatile four years under Trump. Beijing is trying to revive a struggling economy, and uncertainty over Trump’s presidency is “deeply worrying,” according to Bremmer. “They will want the relationship to be more constructive in this environment because it’s a bad time for them to experience a crisis.”