In the last episode of 30 with Guyon Espinerone of the first voices to sound the alarm on climate change, Dr. Michael Oppenheimer, offers both stark warnings and cautious hope as the world grapples with a worsening climate crisis – and reveals his thoughts on climate activists like Extinction Rebellion.

As world leaders gather again for global climate negotiations at COP29 in Azerbaijan, there is very little good news to come.

National heat records have fallen this year across the world, and there is evidence that the world may have already exceeded the 1.5 degree threshold agreed in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Long before climate change dominated news cycles, Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of geosciences and international affairs at Princeton University, was already in the fight.

His career spans four decades of groundbreaking work, including direct participation in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for which he was jointly awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007, having provided significant contribution to understanding the risks posed by global warming.

He studied how melting Antarctic ice threatened coastal cities and early on advised figures like Margaret Thatcher on the dangers of global warming.

Despite his deep knowledge of the catastrophic trajectory we find ourselves on, he remains, in his own words, an optimist. This optimism is, however, tempered by realism.

“Adapting to our changing climate is not fatalism,” he says. “It is the necessary response to a reality that we can no longer ignore.”

Michael Oppenheimer has been researching climate change for over 40 years.
Photo: RNZ

The new climate reality

The world has entered what Oppenheimer calls “a whole new climate era.”

In his conversation with Espiner, he painted a vivid picture of the changes already underway.

“The climate has already changed. Here we are,” he says, warning of extreme weather events that have become more frequent and more severe.

“We are seeing storms more intense than ever, rising sea levels flooding coastal areas. even at high tide.

“Inland flooding is happening in places that have never experienced it before. And it’s not just in the United States – it’s a global problem.”

The effects of these changes are becoming impossible to ignore, says Oppenheimer.

This includes the sad reality of rising temperatures leading to increase in heat-related deaths and the devastation of natural ecosystems.

“Almost everywhere on Earth it is hotter than before, even in New Zealand, and because it is hotter than before, most of these places are experiencing more extremely hot days, and extreme heat kills” , he said.

“Species are threatened and some ecosystems are diminishing or being displaced. We cannot pretend that this is a problem for the distant future. It is a problem for now.”

Firefighters battle a forest fire north of Athens, Greece, in August.
Photo: AFP

From greenhouse to greenhouse

Originally trained in astrophysics, Oppenheimer turned to climate science after stumbling upon an article in an MIT alumni magazine in the late 1960s detailing the effect of human activity on the Earth’s natural greenhouse process.

“We have been releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere since the industrial revolution,” he explains.

“It wasn’t noticeable (at the time), but it was probably going to be noticeable over the next few decades.”

He’s not happy that he was right.

Unlike conventional pollutants, gases like carbon dioxide persist for millennia.

“Even if we stopped all emissions today, carbon dioxide levels would not simply disappear,” he says. “We would face an abnormal climate for centuries.”

However, Oppenheimer is optimistic: there is still a way to go. The cost of renewable energy sources like wind and solar power is falling, and many countries are already freeing themselves from their dependence on coal.

“New energy sources are now cheaper,” he says. “We have a solution to the problem. We just need to implement it faster.”

* 30 with Guyon Espiner comes out every week on RNZ, YouTube, TVNZ+ and wherever you get your podcasts.

The Trump factor and the obstacles linked to fossil fuels

In the full, unabridged interview, recorded just days before Donald Trump took over the US presidency, Michael Oppenheimer is clear-eyed about the challenges ahead.

Even though Trump has toned down his outright denial of climate change, his actions speak volumes, he says.

“His basic philosophy is: Let’s drill for oil and coal wherever we can.”

Despite this, Oppenheimer says progress is still being made in the United States, with a push toward electrification and falling emissions.

Since 2005, U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from energy use have fallen by about 20%.

“But it’s not enough,” he said. “The problem is that we are in a world where some nations act and others do not.”

Furthermore, and despite the downward trend in its emissions, the United States remains the second largest emitter of CO2 after China.

In many ways, humanity has already crossed what Oppenheimer describes as a “climate danger zone.”

This does not mean an imminent apocalypse, but it does indicate an escalation of risks. “We will see extreme heat, torrential rains and increased drying of soils, which will make agriculture and access to drinking water more difficult,” he says.

“For a while, richer countries like New Zealand and the United States can get by, but the tension will increase, and the poorest nations and communities are already suffering the consequences. »

The disparity in resources is a pressing concern for Oppenheimer. In many developing countries, where air conditioning is rare, even a slight increase in temperature can have serious public health consequences, he explains.

“We have created a terrible situation. We must accelerate the transition to new energy sources and protect those who cannot afford to protect themselves.”

Coastal houses in Tuvalu. This low-lying South Pacific nation has been classified by the United Nations Development Program as “extremely vulnerable” to climate change.
Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images

A call for pragmatic activism

When it comes to climate activism, Oppenheimer supports efforts that educate rather than alienate. He says tactics like vandalize works of art can do more harm than good.

“I don’t think it’s a good idea and I wouldn’t do it myself.

“Nonviolent protests and public challenges to politicians or businesses that aren’t doing enough are the way forward,” he says.

Students will strike for climate in Parliament in 2021. Oppenheimer says such non-violent protests and other forms of political pressure are the way forward.
Photo: ©VNP / Phil Smith

“We need actions that attract attention and push for change without alienating potential supporters.”

Despite the overwhelming evidence of a worsening climate crisis, Oppenheimer’s belief in the possibility of change remains unwavering.

“We know what to do. We need to stop using fossil fuels as soon as possible and develop renewable energy,” he says.

The key, he believes, is to accelerate this transition and ensure that mitigation and adaptation strategies are in place. The stakes are undeniably high, but Oppenheimer’s message is clear: It is not too late to act.

“We need to plan for a different future and start protecting ourselves today, because now is the time to act, before risks pile on top of each other.”

Subscribe to the podcast feed now to receive every 30 episode on your phone as soon as it arrives:

On Spotify

On iHeartRadio

On Apple Podcasts