Adam Schultz, Official photograph of Vice President Kamela Harris2021, Library of Congress (inverted)

Conflicting explanations from Democratic officials and experts

Biden gave up too late.
Harris was wiretapped too soon.

Harris did not introduce herself to voters.
She was too well known.

Biden has given Harris impossible tasks to accomplish.
He didn’t give anything important to Harris.

Biden should have resigned to support Harris.
He should never have dedicated Harris.

The economy was weak, but Harris said it was strong.
The economy was strong, but voters thought it was weak.

Trump voters are disconnected from the media.
Trump voters are addicted to the blogosphere

Trump is uninhibited.
Harris laughs too much.

Harris has failed to court progressive voters.
She failed to move towards the center.

Trump voters are racist and misogynistic.
They are victims of the pandemic and inflation.

The Real Reasons Harris Lost

She ignored progressive and working-class voters.

Harris proposed tax increases on millionaires, billionaires and big companies were modest. She never mentioned a wealth tax, a stock trading tax, a luxury tax or anything else that would have allowed significant transfers of money to the American working class, which represents approximately 70% of voters. Even Support from Republican voters bigger tax fairness.

It wasn’t until October 23, 2024, ten days before the election, that Harris announced her support for a $15 national minimum wage. $15 is no longer a living wage, even in rural areas where housing costs are below average. In most large cities, average hourly wage are already higher, but remain insufficient.

Harris’ main campaign surrogates were big, wealthy, out-of-touch Democrats like the Clintons and Obamas who were condescending to working people. She took most of her economic advice from Wall Street, Silicon Valley and Hollywood.

It offered little help to elderly or retired people.

Trump promised to end taxation of Social Security income, but Harris has not done so. Nor has she committed to increasing retirement benefits. Harris proposed adding benefits for dental care, eye care and in-home support for seniors. These promises, however, were not a major focus of Harris’ speeches or interviews. She doesn’t have Support Medicare for Allan idea supported by 80% of Democrats and 60% of independents.

What about parents of young children?

Harris’ proposal to expand access to child care by capping costs at 7 percent of income for “working families” was paltry and vague on details. She supported renewing the child tax credit, which significantly reduced child poverty, but it was not a central theme of her campaign.

Why haven’t we heard more about the environment and climate change?

Harris barely mentioned these issues during the campaign. Instead, she promised to support fracking (even though she had previously opposed it) and allow the continued growth of oil drilling. She boasted (accurately) that under Biden/Harris there had been “the largest increase in domestic oil production in history.”

Indigenous communities have turned against Democrats.

Harris has not promised to take action to increase employment, improve water quality, clean up pollution or solve the Native American health crisis. Indigenous counties changed by 10% in Trump’s favor compared to 2020.

And then there were black and Latino men; and them?

Although Black men voted overwhelmingly for Harris (78%), this represents a 2% drop from 2020 and does not match the 85% vote of women. Harris’ inability to balance her support for law enforcement with criticism of police harassment and violencemaybe that was a reason. Harris could have reminded black voters that Trump supports the return of “stop and search“, banned by a federal court in 2023. Latino men only supported Harris over Trump by 50 to 47 percent, much worse than in 2020. Was it because she s is aligned with Trump in proposing to block most immigration from Latin America?

Union members in the Upper Midwest felt excluded.

Harris said little about improving the right to form unions. She campaigned with anti-union Republicans like Liz Cheney more so than with UAW President Shawn Fain, the most influential and effective union leader in decades. Harris failed to win the support of the Teamsters union and its president Sean O’Brian. During her meeting with him, she defended Biden’s strong use of union workers to avert railroad and UPS strikes.

She ignored or insulted students and young people.

Harris said little about the cost of education, loan repayment or job training. She did not listen to students demonstrating against the Israeli attack on Palestinian civilians in Gaza and, in several cases, even insulted them. They turned away from her in droves, especially in key states: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Other anti-war voters fare no better.

Not only did Harris not condemn the Israeli genocide in Gaza, she refused to discuss it with Arab-American and Muslim leaders. A Palestinian-American activist supporting Harris was denied even a brief speaking time at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. Harris surrogate Bill Clinton insulted Arab-Americans in Michigan, a key state. In addition to her blind support for Israel, Harris has refused to push for an end to the war in Ukraine. It turns out that blacks, Latinos, students and almost everyone opposes American financing of the war and genocide.

The above factors, distilled: inflation, inequality and war

Inflation: price increases from 2020 to 2023, particularly for food and to rent outdidn’t reverse – not even close. And since rental costs were already high – often amounting to 50% of working-class income – increasing wages did not seem like adequate compensation. Although prices are increasing food wholesalers and retailers and by housing rental companies It was obvious, Biden did nothing to stop it. Harris’ promise early in her campaign to end price gouging (which she abandoned under pressure from business interests) fell flat because the remedy was vague, unconvincing, and ultimately unknown.

Inequality: The real economic story of the last 50 years has been the steady rise of economic inequality. Researchers have traced this increase in detail, but its impact was exacerbated during and after the pandemic. The wealthy sought refuge in country homes and resorts, or had groceries and restaurant meals delivered to their large homes and apartments. The poor did the cooking, nursing, and making deliveries. Democrats were supposed to be the party of working people, and while Biden’s economic investments helped the economy recover quickly from a sharp pandemic decline, they did not erase the general abjection of the working class. Harris was to offer a populist message of economic recovery, even salvation. She offered no such thing.

War: There is nothing like a war, or two wars, to make a national community feel threatened and uncertain. The continuing war in Ukraine is stupid and everyone knows it: every day that passes weakens Ukraine’s negotiating position, and this has been true since the first successful defense of kyiv. And yet it continues, with a very real threat of escalation, or even the use of nuclear weapons. The conflict in Gaza is not so much a war as ethnic cleansing, even genocide. Israel is not fighting an army – Palestine has none, only Hamas, an already devastated ragtag militia. Israel is instead attacking a people and an idea of ​​independence. Students and Arab Americans in the United States are angry and ashamed. Polls indicate Blacks and Latinos are too. Many have mobilized to protest against genocide.

Bottom line: If Harris had 1) proposed a bold plan to lower prices, reduce housing costs, and fight inequality and 2) adopted the institutionally risky, but electorally popular, strategy of breaking with Biden and promising an end rapid wars, she would have won.