ORLANDO, Florida. – Invest 99L is likely to strengthen into a tropical depression on Wednesday in the central Caribbean, which could lead to a possible strengthening into a tropical storm on Thursday and potentially Hurricane Sara by Friday.

According to the 7 a.m. NHC update, the system has a 90% chance of developing over the next 48 hours and 7 days.

The storm is currently located in the western Caribbean and is expected to remain in this area until early next week before moving northeast into the Gulf by the middle of next week.

If Invest 99L stays offshore, it could develop into a major hurricane, but if it moves over land, it would weaken.

Is a tropical storm heading toward Florida?

Current models show different scenarios for how this potential system could impact the state.

It is too early to predict what will form, how strong it will be, and where it might be headed. However, if the storm takes shape, the impacts will still be 9 to 10 days away.

Two current scenarios regarding the impact on Florida:

• Scenario 1: The storm moves between Cancun and Cuba, potentially becoming a major hurricane over open waters and impacting Florida early next week as a powerful system.

• Scenario 2: The storm moves over Nicaragua and Honduras before heading towards Belize, eventually reaching the Gulf and eventually heading towards Florida. This path would likely result in a weaker system.

When will we know?

We will learn more throughout the week as the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor this potential system and provide updates on its development.

When does hurricane season end?

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30, 2024. The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 each year. Although rare, it is possible for storms to form outside these windows.

How many tropical storms and hurricanes have we had this year?

If Sara forms, it would mark the 18th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

So far this year, we’ve had 11 hurricanes and six tropical storms, with a total of 17 named storms.

Hurricanes: Beryl, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Hélène, Isaac, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Oscar, Rafael.

Tropical storms: Alberto, Chris, Gordon, Joyce, Nadine and Patty.

Three hurricanes made landfall in Florida: Hurricane Debby, Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton.

In November, only three hurricanes made landfall in Florida in the last 173 years of records. These were an unnamed storm in 1935, Hurricane Kate in 1985, and Hurricane Nicole in 2022.

Which names remain on the list?

21 names are given each hurricane season, which repeat every six years. Names may be removed if they were significantly destructive or deadly.

If all 21 names are used during a season, there is an additional list of storm names. The top five on this list are: Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn and Emery.

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