The Atlantic 2024 Hurricane season may not be over in the United States., even after five hurricanes made landfall on the Gulf Coast and damage estimated at more than $120 billion.

A tropical wave moving westward into the Caribbean and is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm over the next few days, with a 90% chance of developing over the next 48 hours, the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday morning. This would be the 18th named storm of the season and is in the running for the name Sara.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight is planned to investigate the disturbance later today, the hurricane center said.

At least one computer model used to help predict hurricanes indicates that Sara could become a major hurricane threatening the Florida coast next week, but it remains to be seen whether it will head toward the Gulf of Mexico, with several factors at play Meanwhile, heavy rain is forecast in Jamaica over the next few days.

More: Storm Tracker: Caribbean System Could Become Hurricane Sara By Next Week

An official forecast track will not be available until the disturbance develops into an organized tropical storm with a defined circulation center. However, the hurricane center said Wednesday that “further developments are likely as disturbances meander over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend.”

The storm could take advantage of “some unusually favorable late-season conditions” to strengthen early next week,” wrote Michael Lowry, hurricane specialist and storm surge expert at WPLG-TV in South Florida. , in its daily update on Tuesday.

Water temperatures in the Caribbean are warmer than normal, but temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico hit a record high this week, according to graphs of ocean heat content curated by Brian McNoldy, senior research scientist at the Rosenstiel School at the University of Miami. Warm water helps fuel hurricanes.

Lowry and other meteorologists say two key questions will determine whether the disturbance could threaten the United States. Early next week, the system is expected to begin moving slowly northwest, but precisely when it turns could make a difference in both the strength and location of the system. .

“If a tropical storm or hurricane forms in the western Caribbean, its path will likely be strongly influenced by the position of a high pressure dome along the southern Atlantic coast of the United States,” AccuWeather said Tuesday .

For now, the chaotic nature of the model’s trajectories indicates “high uncertainty” in the forecasts, Lowry said. If the storm moves over Central America or Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, the interaction could weaken it. However, he added, if it stays off the Caribbean, there is a good chance it will strengthen and be headed toward the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

Given the environmental conditions in the region, several models used to forecast potential intensity suggest that a potential hurricane could reach Category 3 status, with winds in excess of 180 km/h, and one of them suggests that it could reach Category 4 status, according to the website. Tropicaltidbits.com, maintained by meteorologist Levi Cowan.

If a sixth hurricane makes landfall along the Gulf of Mexico, it would tie the 1886 record for the most landfalls in a season on the U.S. Gulf Coast, McNoldy posted on social media Tuesday. With five hurricanes so far this season, 2024 is tied with 2005 and 2020 for the second-most Gulf hurricanes ever recorded in a season.

November hurricanes are rather unusual. Only three hurricanes have ever hit the United States or made landfall in November, one in 1861 and one in 1935, as well as Hurricane Kate in 1985. according to NOAA records.

A busy 2024 hurricane season

So far, 2024 is the 11th most active season in terms of number of hurricane days and accumulated cyclone energy since meteorologists began observing hurricanes by satellite in 1966, said research scientist Phil Klotzbach principal at Colorado State University. The Hurricane Energy Index calculates the total energy of a season based on the storm frequency and maximum wind speed of each hurricane over its lifetime.

Among the most active seasons were 2005 and 2020, the two years when the hurricane center exhausted its initial list of names and turned to a backup list, according to Klotzbach. Seven of the most active seasons have occurred in this century.

The 2024 season matches pretty closely with NOAA and Colorado State University’s preseason forecasts for hurricanes and major hurricanes. Only named storms are behind these seasonal forecasts. Although the season started off busy, including a record Beryl, a lull in August surprised forecasters, but 12 named storms have developed since early September.

Hurricanes making landfall in 2024

Beryl – Matagorda County, TexasDéby – Taylor County, FloridaAnd South CarolinaFrancine – Terrebonne Parish, LouisianaHelene – Taylor County, FloridaMilton – Sarasota County, Florida

Learn more about the 2024 season

Dinah Voyles Pulver covers climate change and the environment for USA TODAY. She has been writing about hurricanes, tornadoes and severe weather for over 30 years. Contact her at [email protected] or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X.

This article was originally published on USA TODAY: Tropical Storm Sara could form and become a hurricane