Americans are fed up with the cost of food, and many are looking to the president-elect Donald Trump to reduce their grocery bills.

Trump often denounced sharp price increases during the election campaign. for the baconcereal, crackers and other items.

“We’re going to get them down,” he told shoppers during a September visit to a Pennsylvania grocery store.

But the food price inflation that stunned the United States – and other parts of the world – in 2021 and 2022 had complex and hard-to-eliminate causes, from the pandemic to the war in Ukraine to bird flu . And many economists think Trump’s plans, notably that of putting tariffs on imported food and deporting undocumented workers, could actually drive up food prices.

In October, prices for food consumed at home in the United States were up 28% compared to 2019, according to government figures published Wednesday. But the growth peaked in 2022; between October 2023 and October 2024, food prices increased by 2%, which was lower than the overall inflation rate.

The shock of supermarket stickers nevertheless weighed on the American electorate. About 7 in 10 voters — including 70% of women and 63% of men — said they were very concerned about the cost of food and groceries, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 120,000 voters. Only 1 in 10 people said they were not too concerned or not at all.

Trump won decisively among voters who said they were “very” concerned. About 6 in 10 voters in this group supported him, while 4 in 10 backed Vice President Kamala Harris, his Democratic rival. Harris won a strong majority of somewhat concerned voters, not too worried or not at all concerned.

When asked how he would reduce grocery prices during a September Michigan town hallTrump said the tariffs would help American farmers. Trump called for a 60% tariff on products made in China and a “universal” tariff of 10 to 20 percent on all other foreign products entering the United States. In some speeches, he mentioned even higher percentages.

Trump said American farmers were being “decimated” because the United States allows a large number of agricultural products into the country. In 2021, the United States imported 60% of its fresh fruit, 38% of its fresh vegetables – excluding potatoes and mushrooms – and 10% of its beef, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

“We are going to have to be a bit like other countries,” he said. “We are not going to allow this much to happen. We will let our farmers work.”

But David Ortega, a professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University, said food producers rely on imported products like fertilizer, equipment and packaging materials. If they are forced to pay more for these items, they will raise prices, Ortega said.

U.S. farmers could also have difficulty selling their products abroad because other countries would likely respond with retaliatory tariffs, he said. About 20% of U.S. agricultural production is exported each year, according to the USDA.

The American Farm Bureau did not respond to a request for comment from The Associated Press. The Consumer Brands Association, which represents major food companies like Coca-Cola and Nestle as well as personal care companies like Procter & Gamble, says many of its members need ingredients grown outside the United States, such as coffee, bananas and chocolate.

“There is a fundamental disconnect between the stated goal of reducing food prices and pricing policy that only increases those costs,” said Tom Madrecki, the association’s vice president of campaigns and special projects. .

Ortega said Trump plans to deport people who are in the United States illegally could also drive up food prices. There are more than 2 million undocumented workers throughout the U.S. food chain, he said, including about 1 million working on farms, 750,000 in restaurants and 200,000 in food production.

At the Michigan town hall, Trump said reducing energy costs by increasing oil and gas drilling would also lead to lower food prices.

“If you make donuts, if you make cars, it doesn’t matter what you make, energy is a big issue, and we’ll get there.” My ambition is to reduce your energy bill by 50% within 12 months,” he said.

Energy represents only a relatively small part of the cost of producing and selling food. For every dollar spent on food in 2022, just under 4 cents was spent on energy costs, according to the USDA. Agricultural production costs 8 cents, while food processing costs 14 cents.

Joseph Glauber, a senior fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, said energy prices are important, but they have already go down significantly over the past year.

“I think it would be difficult for the Trump administration to have a big impact on energy prices in the short term,” Glauber said.

When asked if Trump had plans Beyond energy and tariffs aimed at reducing grocery costs, a spokesperson for his transition team did not provide further details.

“The American people re-elected President Trump with a large majority, giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail. He will keep his promises,” said Karoline Leavitt.

Voters believe politicians have the power to lower food prices.

According to the Gardner Food and Farm Policy Survey, which regularly polls consumers on food and farming issues, 74 percent of Republicans believe Republican politicians can lower food prices, while 62 percent of Democrats believe Democrats can reduce food prices. The survey, conducted by the University of Illinois and Purdue University, polled 1,000 consumers in August.

Jordan Voigt, 34, a single mother of two young children, said she currently lives with her parents near Asheville, North Carolina, because the cost of fuel and groceries has become very high.

Voigt said she voted for Trump in part because she thought he was a businessman who could lower prices.

“He doesn’t just say, ‘Oh, this is how much it costs, the American people have to accept it.’ I appreciate that,” Voigt said at an election night rally. “He stands up and says, ‘No, the American people are not going to pay for this. And he said, “You’re going to have to find a way to make this cheaper.” »

But Ortega and other economists say there is little a president can do, especially in the short term, to lower food prices. Sustained price declines usually only occur steep and prolonged recessions.

“People want food prices to go back to pre-COVID-19 levels, and that’s just not going to happen,” he said. “Deflation is not something we want.”

Maria Kalaitzandonakes, an assistant professor of agricultural and consumer economics at the University of Illinois who helped conduct the Gardner survey, agrees that the White House has little power to quickly bring down food prices .

But presidents can encourage policies that help control food price inflation in the long term, she said, such as increasing competition and investing in infrastructure, agricultural technology and pest-resistant crops. to extreme weather conditions.

“Lowering food prices is not a good thing,” said Kalaitzandonakes. “What we would rather think about is whether your income is keeping pace with your bills rather than your grocery bill going down.”

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AP video journalist Erik Verduzco contributed from Asheville, North Carolina.