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In Ukraine, Trump’s election sparked concern but also hope that he could end the war
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In Ukraine, Trump’s election sparked concern but also hope that he could end the war

Valentyn Semenov/EyeEm/Getty Images

(LONDON) — The election of Donald Trump has already sparked intense discussions over its impact on the war in Ukraine, with all sides now preparing for possible negotiations once he takes office.

In Ukraine, Trump’s victory sparked mixed reactions. But while his threats to cut off U.S. aid and his suggestions that he might force kyiv to cede territory sparked obvious anxiety, it is perhaps surprising that many Ukrainians welcomed Trump’s victory.

Some Ukrainian officials, commanders, soldiers and public commentators have told other media outlets and ABC News that they hope Trump wins the election, seeing it as at least a chance to end a war they say does not work in favor of Ukraine. , even if it is an opportunity also fraught with risks.

This sentiment reflects the deep disillusionment with the Biden administration that has spread in recent months among Ukrainians, many of whom view his policies as giving Ukraine enough to barely survive, but not to achieve victory. nor even force fair negotiations. While grateful for the enormous support provided early in the war, many Ukrainians express frustration with Biden’s so-called “self-deterrence,” imposing restrictions on some weapons and sometimes slowing the aid because of what they see as exaggerated fears that Russia will make the situation even worse. war.

“Trump coming to power gave Ukraine hope,” a commander of a drone unit fighting in eastern Ukraine told ABC News. “He is too simple a person who will not pretend to help us, as the Democrats did. He is stronger than Biden and is ready to make strong decisions,” said the commander, who requested anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.

During the election campaign, Trump repeatedly promised to end the war in “24 hours” by forcing Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine to negotiate. He and members of his campaign have previously suggested that it may be necessary to accept territorial losses.

While many Ukrainians fear Trump will cut aid further, some are willing to bet on him, saying it’s better than continuing on a path that bleeds the country and which many think is unlikely to happen. ‘he gets Ukrainian territory back anyway.

Russia is advancing slowly at several points along the front line in eastern Ukraine, with Ukrainian troops running out of steam, reporting dangerous manpower shortages.

“The only path left is the diplomatic path,” the commander in eastern Ukraine told ABC News.

Other Ukrainians are much more fearful, worried that Putin is in a position of strength and that he will manage to impose his conditions in the negotiations. A senior Ukrainian military official told ABC News he fears negotiating now could be a “fatal mistake” that could see Ukraine permanently lose its territory while enjoying little future protection.

“You understand why Russia agrees to negotiations,” the official said. “They are also crushed and tired. They want a break and to regroup. Putin would use any ceasefire to rearm and then re-invade Ukraine, the official warned, saying the United States should instead reinforce Ukraine and negotiate once Russia’s military cracks further.

Others say it is unlikely that Trump, who values ​​his strongman image, will capitulate to Putin. Instead, they hope that if Putin refuses to negotiate, Trump could provide Ukraine with more weapons with fewer restrictions to force Russia to the table.

“Do you think Trump will be willing to be brought to his knees by Putin? I doubt it,” said Oleksandr Chalyi, former Ukrainian ambassador to Washington. “Donald Trump, who says ‘let’s make America great and strong again, America first’, is not ready for a dialogue where he would be humiliated.”

Trump’s choice of Rep. Mike Waltz of Florida as national security adviser and the potential choice of Sen. Marco Rubio as secretary of state offered potential encouragement to those hoping that a Trump administration might take a hard line on the towards Russia during the negotiations.

Both Waltz and Rubio have been strong supporters of Ukraine during the war, while also vehemently criticizing the Biden administration’s strategy and insisting that NATO countries should do more.

Waltz, a former Green Beret with a reputation as a China hawk, wrote in an op-ed this month for The Economist magazine that the Trump administration should use economic pressure, including through increased sanctions on oil exports Russian, to force Putin to negotiate. . If Putin refuses, the United States should increase its arms deliveries to Ukraine, he writes. He also told NPR that the United States could lift restrictions on Ukraine by using long-range Western weapons to strike deep inside Russia, to pressure Putin to conclude an agreement.

Biden’s current approach would still end in a stalemate with Russia occupying part of Ukraine’s territory, Waltz wrote in The Economist, saying it “will simply take more time, blood and treasure to get there.”

Trump has not yet officially announced that he will choose Rubio as secretary of state and he would need Senate approval.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has spoken by telephone with Trump since his election, has so far publicly rejected giving up any territory and warned last week that a quick peace deal would likely end badly for Ukraine.

“We all want an end to this war, but a just end,” Zelensky told reporters at a European summit in Budapest. “If it goes very quickly, it will be a loss for Ukraine.”

The head of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s parliamentary party, David Arakhamia, told ABC News last week that it was too early to discuss specific plans. But he warned that Ukraine could only agree to freeze the war if the United States provided “real security guarantees” that would prevent Russia from simply resorting to a ceasefire to rearm.

“We need to find a solution that guarantees people that once the war is over, it will not happen again,” Arakhamia said, asserting that real security guarantees were Ukraine’s “number one” priority. But, he said, it was “good” for the United States to think seriously about resolving the war.

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