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    • Polymarket CEO’s apartment raided by feds
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    Polymarket CEO’s apartment raided by feds

    Umito Posted on

    A raid, for show: Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan, 26, had his Soho apartment raided yesterday morning by the federal government.

    For the uninitiated, Polymarket is a betting site that accurately predicted the outcome of the presidential election, unlike many pollsters. Today, Coplan is the subject of a joint criminal investigation by the FBI and the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York to determine whether it operated the site as an unlicensed commodities exchange.

    Federal authorities seized Coplan’s devices, which led to some truly excellent tweets. Hey, if they have to do all this in public, he should do it too.

    But many believe Polymarket is in trouble, not because it has done anything terrible (indeed, no one has been harmed or defrauded, the punters are all willing adults, who in some cases behave like bandits), but because it disrupts the old way of doing things. and embarrass those in power. “Financial markets are generally quite efficient, and the evidence suggests that the same is true for prediction markets,” said Eric Zitzewitz, an economics professor at Dartmouth. said CNN. “There’s no virtue signaling in an anonymous market when you’re betting.”

    Polymarket works by allowing users to purchase stocks tied to a specific outcome. Each share then trades between $0 and $1; correct bets pay out a dollar, so you can earn a good chunk of change (as one French trader said). did, bet that Donald Trump would win the election). Everything runs peer-to-peer on the blockchain, so there is no bookmaker.

    “Election betting is a murky legal area in the United States. In 2022, Polymarket agreed to stop offering its services to U.S.-based users after settling with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for operating without registration. company paid a fine of $1.4 million. reports The New York Times. But since then, the fact that you can easily access Polymarket with a VPN has been an open secret; there are tons of American users, contrary to what the federal government would like.

    And this French trader mentioned above? Many speculated that he was trying to manipulate the odds. “How accurate could the predictive power of this platform be if a fanatic could go all-in and skew the odds?” request CNN, to which Coplan retorted: “If someone takes a very important position on Trump… there is someone on the other side, a counterpart,” often doing the opposite. “When you see the odds on Polymarket, they don’t depend on the amount of money either side bets, but on the market price at that time,” Coplan explained. “Some transactions made two weeks ago have no impact on the current market price.”

    Polymarket not only designated the races quite accurately, successfully harnessing the wisdom of those who act in their own self-interest, but also early enough. A comparison table:

    Company spokesperson said the raid on Coplan’s home was “clear political retaliation by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a deal that properly called the 2024 presidential election.”

    “It is disheartening that the current administration is seeking a last-ditch effort to go after companies it views as associated with political opponents,” wrote Coplan yesterday on be what could have been.” changed their destiny in this election. Polymarket has brought value to tens of millions of people this election cycle, without harming anyone. »

    “The elections will succeed, but Polymarket, as a news format for the masses and a way to think about current events and the future, is undoubtedly here to stay,” wrote Coplan last week on X, even before the election results were published. He was vindicated again a day later, once Trump’s victory became clear. We will see if the federal government recognizes that its platform is here to stay.

    Scenes from New York: Liberal darling Ezra Klein finally breaks the omerta of experts and admits what we all knew to be true: that cities governed by Democrats are mostly rubbish, plagued by a high cost of living, lots of public unrest, and inexcusable crime that, in some cases, does not not even give rise to prosecution. He even talks about the influx of illegal immigrants as a phenomenon that angers people in places like New York. Is this a sign that Democratic fever is waning and they finally feel comfortable admitting obvious truths, or will he be taught a lesson?

    QUICK SHOTS

    • I wish there was more Gaetzkeeping, actually. This is a bad choice:
    • Tulsi Gabbard, who years ago served as a Democratic representative in the House and has since made a name for herself as Fox News’ regular and outspoken war critic, will serve as director of national intelligence. “I have a lot of questions,” said Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee. said journalists in response:
    • The word backlash is used so many times here:
    • Think tanks are fighting:
    • A extract: “MI assumes that new immigrants generate ZERO additional corporate income tax revenue,” writes David Bier of the Cato Institute. “I doubt MI’s own tax policy experts would agree. Employees are hired because they generate more revenue for the company. Ultimately, MI excludes more than $700 billion in revenue from his analysis.”
    • “Consumer prices rose 2.6% year-on-year in October overall and 3.3% excluding the volatile food and energy categories,” reports Bloomberg. “Both numbers match the median forecasts of economists in a Bloomberg survey. The numbers emphasize the slow and frustrating nature of the fight against inflation, which has often been sidelined – sometimes for months – on its broader downward trajectory. »
    • The Trump-Musk relationship is fascinating:

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