CNN
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Tropical storm Sarah is here and moving closer to Central America where it will trigger disastrous flood rains in the region. This is the first, and potentially most serious, threat posed by a storm expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Sara, who trained on Thursday afternoon approaching the Honduras-Nicaragua border, it is the 18th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. It’s a season worthy of its beginnings hyperactive forecasts and does not have played by the rules.

Tropical activity is expected to cease in November, but Sara is now the third named storm this month thanks to unusually warm waters brought on by climate change.

Forecasts beyond early next week are still very uncertain, but they tend to have the U.S. avoiding the worst that Sara has to offer. The National Hurricane Center is still urging residents in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys and Cuba, to closely monitor the predicted changes.

Sara has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and will strengthen slightly as it moves toward Honduras on Thursday. It will slow down considerably and move along the coast on Friday and throughout the weekend.

The storm could approach so close to Honduras that it will briefly make landfall this weekend, but it may still draw on the warm waters of the western Caribbean Sea for support.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of Honduras and Nicaragua. Storm rains began on Thursday in both countries and strong winds will arrive in the evening and intensify on Friday.

The storm will bring “life-threatening” flooding of up to 30 inches to Honduras and double-digit rainfall to other parts of Central America, the NHC warned. This could mean “widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides.”

Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula will then be threatened by storm surges and gusty winds by early next week. Residents must therefore prepare.

There are a few potential scenarios on the table for how big the storm will be and whether it could reach the United States next week. It all depends on how close Sara gets to the coast of Honduras over the next few days and what happens once she reaches the Yucatán Peninsula.

The latest predictions predict that Sara will spend much more time interacting with the earth than initially thought, limiting its overall strength. The hurricane center’s official forecast calls for the system to hug the coast of Honduras and move just inland over the weekend, but that could change.

If it makes landfall in Honduras this weekend and moves far enough inland, it could deteriorate above land, deprived of the warm water that feeds it. This scenario would bring high winds and torrential rain to Central America, but could push the storm away from the United States entirely or make it resemble a very weak storm.

If Sara stays very close to the coast of Central America, but moves briefly overland, it could potentially emerge in the southern Gulf of Mexico next week as a weak storm, but slightly stronger than in the first scenario. This scenario would lessen the shock if it were to reach the United States. This would continue to trigger life-threatening flooding in Central America and provoke dangerous strikes in Belize and Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula.

A third, now less likely, scenario keeps the storm far enough from the coast and over the extremely warm waters of the Caribbean to strengthen significantly – and perhaps even intensify quickly. This would have greater consequences for Central America, Yucatán and Belize and much more worrying predictions for the United States.

A stronger storm would be a major problem as sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean are currently at their highest levels. second warmest recorded and are warmer than they should be at the height of hurricane season. Warmer bodies of water are fueling stronger storms and intensifying more rapidly as the planet warms due to fossil fuel pollution.

The Yucatán Peninsula will also be a major factor in what shape Sara will be in once it reaches or if it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. It may struggle to remain intact if it enters and spends more time over the Yucatán next week as a weaker tropical storm or tropical depression.

Sara could be in tatters by the time it reaches the Gulf of Mexico and potentially make a turn toward the eastern Gulf Coast, but the Gulf is record-hot for this time of year and could also enhance the strength of the system.