Hannan pointed to supply chain issues during the COVID-19 pandemic that have driven up material prices. “Costs have exploded,” he said. “There have been (residential) projects that have been delayed and projects that have not moved forward.”

During the first Trump administration, the California Building Industry Association told the Sacramento Bee that tariffs passed during the first two years of the president’s term had drives up the cost of an average new home from $20,000 to $30,000.

Trump suggested this year that he could impose tariffs of 20% on general imports and 60% on those from China.

Business leaders said Trump’s unpredictability made it difficult to plan for possible future tariffs. “If Trump did nothing and let the (Federal Reserve) continue to lower interest rates and didn’t implement crazy tariffs, things would improve in terms of housing construction,” said Elaina Houser, vice president -political chair of the Los Angeles Business Council. But a more interventionist President Trump could lead to more instability in the housing market, she said.

“Someone tells him the wrong things from another country and he says ‘I’m going to hit you back with tariffs’ – I can see that happening,” she said.

Relax regulations

Assembly member Joe Patterson hopes the Trump administration keeps its promise moving forward. Republican Party 2024 Program “remove unnecessary regulations that increase housing costs.” The Rocklin Republican, who is vice chair of the Assembly Housing Committee, pointed to an affordable apartment complex in his district that he said underwent a costly and lengthy environmental review when Developers wanted to add four additional units per acre to the project. site footprint.

Trump could use the power of federal money to reward states that speed up approval of new developments, he said.

“The two things that impact the price of housing are the cost of land…and the time and money it takes to go through the approval process,” he said, referring to projects of Trump to relax regulations and build housing on federal land. “I think if Trump can focus on those two things, the market can take care of the rest.”

A Trump administration could also work with Congress to relax HUD rules governing mobile home manufacturing, making more, cheaper entry-level housing available, said Alex Horowitz, the initiative’s policy director. housing for the Pew Charitable Trusts.

Restrict access to social housing and article 8

If past is prologue, low-income Californians who rely on federal housing assistance will be at risk under a second Trump administration.

During Trump’s first term, his administration initiated a ban on federal housing assistance to families with undocumented members, including those with U.S. citizen children. The rule, never implemented, would have broken with the current policy allowing mixed-status families to receive prorated aid based on the number of eligible family members.

If the federal government were to adopt a similar rule today, “a large number of households in California would be affected – mixed-status families who would have to make the difficult choice of separating as a family or leaving their homes and, very probably not to do it. being able to find an alternative,” said Chione Flegal, executive director of Housing California, an affordable housing advocacy group.

Project 2025, the conservative blueprint for a second Trump administration, also envisions a sweeping overhaul of the Department of Housing and Urban Development that would add deadlines and increase work requirements for housing benefits, sell government-owned land responsible for public housing and would transfer part of it. of the department’s responsibilities to state and local governments.

Reducing the number of Californians eligible for federal housing vouchers could jeopardize new affordable housing projects because some developers rely on income from voucher holders to complete their projects, Flegal said.

State leaders could choose to provide some funding for housing vouchers, she said, or to finance affordable housing projects that would not be subject to federal rules, even though that would be “incredibly expensive.”

Favor single-family zoning

Trump decried Democrats wanting to “abolish the suburbs,” co-authoring a 2020 Wall Street Journal op-ed with Carson that criticized elected officials from several statesincluding California, to promote higher density housing in residential neighborhoods.