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    • Latino voters are now the key to winning elections
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    Latino voters are now the key to winning elections

    Umito Posted on

    Latino voters used to be overlooked, but that’s no longer the case. Changing demographics mean that Republicans and Democrats must actively appeal to them in the years to come.

    Joseph Garcia
    | opinion contributor

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    Are Latinos the new soccer moms?

    With emotions still raw, and accusations and head scratching continuing throughout the 2024 election and the Latino voteThis is not a casual question.

    Win the vote for “soccer mom” was the obsession of 1996-era politics, with candidates Bill Clinton and Bob Dole both believing that middle- and upper-class, suburban white women with children attending weekend football games, were the key to winning an election.

    They weren’t wrong. Female footballers are always politically attractive.

    But in the wake of the 2024 elections, Latinos are poised to become a coveted deciding vote.

    And, ironically, their burgeoning appeal has nothing to do with football or skin color – and certainly not because they all reside in economically “comfortable” suburbs.

    Latinos voted for Trump out of necessity

    The analogy between soccer players and moms is not meant to ignore political pundits who question the motivation of a larger percentage of traditionally Democratic Latinos voting Republican in the 2024 elections, and thus apparently vote against one’s own interest and the community by breaking for Donald Trump.

    After all, the bombastic presidential candidate has pledged to launch the largest deportation program of undocumented immigrants in U.S. history.

    Trump has long called out immigrants murderers, rapists and drug dealersand more recently, pet carnivores. Yet many Latinos voted for him anyway — apparently without taking him at his word, except for his promise to lower gas and grocery prices.

    This was largely a vote out of necessity, not political ideology. But it still produced a seismic shift in our future political landscape.

    Latinos, who were hit particularly hard by inflation between 2020 and 2024, they wanted change and voted with their wallets and purses in mind. Many could not afford to do otherwise.

    Twenty percent of Arizona’s Latino households living below the federal poverty linewith 27% considered low-income, according to the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute.

    The GOP and Democrats take Latinos for granted

    Historically speaking, Latino voters have long been stuck in a political no-man’s land.

    For decades, Democrats took the Latino vote for granted, believing at the time that they did not constitute a huge population and essentially had nowhere to go politically.

    Latino voters were routinely promised immigration reform and a path to citizenship, only to be abandoned by elected candidates after taking office.

    Conversely, Republicans have completely rejected the Latino vote, either by counting on traditionally low turnout (i.e. former Governor Jan Brewer’s famous quote in 2016 about Latinos: “They don’t come out to vote”), or rely on the systemic safety net of voter suppression laws to neutralize any potential impact of Latinos at the polls.

    The 2024 elections changed all that.

    According to a CNN exit pollalthough Trump lost the Latino vote nationally, it was not by much, 52% to 46%. But a 14-point gain among Latinos from 2020 to 2024 contributed to his victory.

    Four years ago, Joe Biden won the Latino vote by 33 points, compared to Kamala Harris in 2024 with only 6 points ahead to win the Latino vote.

    There is no consistent “Latino vote”

    Unlike black voters, who remain largely a unified bloc, Latinos are everywhere — politically, demographically and by country or culture of origin.

    For example, Mexican Americans in Arizona could never be confused with Cuban Americans in Florida, and Puerto Ricans in New York certainly would not compare themselves to either.

    This is also true politically, with Cuban-Americans being the most conservative of the three – and that’s not even bringing the differences between Central and South America into the discussion.

    There is no “Latino vote.” This is an oversimplification by politicians and the media. It’s a laziness that falls in line with the “machismo” cited as the main reason Latino men reject Harris because she’s a woman.

    While there may be some of that, just as there is misogyny among non-Latino white men and others, the historic 2024 election Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum should put an end to this machismo narrative once and for all. Female presidents have also broken the glass ceiling in Brazil, Argentina and Costa Rica.

    In Arizonafor example, CNN’s exit poll found an equal percentage of Latino men and women voting for Harris – 55%.

    Even though it’s still a considerable underperformance by a Democratic presidential candidate, who can typically count on 60% and above, there was no gender gap among Arizona Latinos. No machismo.

    Why Latino voters will dominate the next election

    Clearly, the numbers for 2024 (which are still being calculated) are nowhere near what Democrats will need to win future elections. The Republicans are observing the same figures, with their eyes already turned towards 2026.

    And both parties are trying to understand this heavyweight: each year, around 1.4 million In the United States, Latinos can vote just by being 18 years old.

    More than 90% of young Latinos were born here and are therefore American citizens. They are not immigrants.

    With a median age around 26Arizona’s steadily growing Latino population is significantly younger than the overall population (39).

    Latinos represent an attractive lifetime of future votes for both parties for generations to come. As a result, Latinos could find themselves in a position of power similar to that of courted female soccer players.

    Notice: Why Latino voters are up for grabs

    Many progressive Latinos understandably view Trump’s election strictly through a pessimistic lens.

    Maybe emotions are still too high for some people to hear this, but in the topsy-turvy world we currently live in, Latinos could end up being the big winner in the 2026 elections.

    The numbers are there now, thanks to a natural maturation process over the past two decades. In 1980, 16% of Arizona’s population was Latino. Today it is 33% – and growing.

    Both parties must appeal to Latinos to win

    Due to changing demographics, it is now impossible to win an election without also winning the Latino swing vote (or at least a significant share, as was the case with Trump in this runoff).

    In the future, which begins now, Latino voters will have to be fooled by both parties with something more than simple relief at the grocery store and the gas pump.

    While adopting a dual, or even mixed, culture to become “more American,” many Latino families are also seeking greater economic assimilation: affordable housing, better education, better jobs, and a path to retirement.

    Generational wealth through access to capital will be on the national checklist, and safer communities and more parks on the local list.

    Is it such a far-fetched dream to believe that we could see more Latinos becoming neighbors with female footballers? This shouldn’t take too much imagination after this election, since many Latinas are already soccer moms.

    And now, with dads, they vote.

    Joseph Garcia is executive director of the Chicanos Por La Causa Action Fund, a nonpartisan, nonprofit advocacy organization based in Phoenix. Contact him at [email protected].

    Umito
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