Donald Trump promised to settle the Ukraine war within 24 hours – and many expect an uneasy peace, a “dirty deal” according to Max Hastings, early next year. Russian forces are now on a roll, advancing a nearly 800-mile front into Ukraine itself and squeezing Ukrainian forces into the pocket of Russian territory around Kursk that they captured last summer.

Any ceasefire and armistice agreement would not be Trump’s, but Poutine‘s. Right now, Putin’s team has said it is in no mood to talk about ending the war. Over the past two days, Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Moscow Foreign Ministry Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Putin superfan, said negotiations could only begin if Western powers agreed to completely stop supplying weapons to Ukraine.

Putin wants to declare total victory in his extremely costly war, thereby nullifying Ukraine as a viable independent state. Russia wants all territory seized so far, neutrality guaranteed to Ukraine, the probable departure of Volodymyr Zelensky of public life and a buffer zone between Ukraine and the rest of Europe.

So have Trump’s peace advocates overplayed their hand by promising what cannot be delivered? However, while Putin intends to continue the war, there is a growing sense that he may have overplayed his hand. Russia appears to be heading for difficulties in 2025 that will affect us all, especially major European powers like Britain, France and Germany.

The indicator of the impending crisis in Russia can be summed up in two words: North Korea.

Putin’s main short-term war goal is to get Ukrainian forces out of Kursk by the end of the year. He has assembled an army of 50,000 men to do so, and the Russians are gaining ground – at a terrible cost. They need the reinforcement of a contingent of 10,000 North Korean soldiers to strengthen their attack force.

The losses are piling up. October was the worst month of the war in terms of serious casualties, with over 40,000 dead and wounded. The total number of Russian casualties is now estimated at 710,000 since February 2022, according to published intelligence. Ukraine’s losses are heavy, but kept secret – and successfully.

The dependence on North Korea extends beyond personnel and reinforcements. Half of the medium and heavy artillery shells fired today by Russian guns come from North Korea. Russia is currently losing about 100 tanks and a total of 320 barrels of tanks and artillery per month, and can only manufacture 20 replacement barrels in the same period. Thus, Russia will run out of major weapons systems for ground warfare by next August – unless it can persuade China to open up its significant military arsenals. And that’s a very big “if”.

“I don’t think the media has focused enough on the appearance of North Koreans fighting alongside the Russians, which makes them co-combatants,” a senior official with direct experience in the war told me this week. Ukraine. He speculated that sending 10,000 North Koreans to Kursk could be just the start of a very big development, with the possibility of 100,000 North Koreans being deployed to Russia in the coming months .

This Monday, Kim Jong Un ratified and published the “Comprehensive Partnership Treaty” between North Korea and Russia, agreed during the meeting between the two leaders in Pyongyang last June. Article 4 states that if one partner enters a state of war and invasion, the other “shall provide military and other assistance with all means in its possession.” This could mean the use of nuclear weapons.

The North Korean dictator appears to be gaining more than Putin from this deal. He comes out of his isolation. Putin needs tens of thousands of North Koreans to manage his precarious security situation at home and the continuing war in Ukraine. More than 500,000 security troops are deployed to ensure internal security – and due to the enormous demands of the war economy, no new recruits are available.

For Putin and for China, there is another nightmare scenario of North Korea emerging from its isolation. This is suggested by credible intelligence sources. This concerns the possible movement of thousands of malnourished North Koreans across the narrow border of the Tumen River, the meeting point of the territories of China, Russia and North Korea. Thousands of Chinese already cross regularly from China to Russia’s remote and underpopulated East Asia. A concerted push by desperate North Koreans cannot be ruled out.

There is a growing view that Putin cannot afford peace now – and, much like Napoleon Bonaparte, his military machine, totalitarian regime and economy rely on continued war and conquest . Conquering and occupying more of Ukraine would require the presence of an occupying army. In times of war as in times of peace, Vladimir could become hostage to his North Korean adventure.

This means problems at all levels for all of us in the European neighborhood.

Robert Fox is the Standard’s defense editor