TOKYO: Japan’s ruling coalition is on the verge of losing its parliamentary majority, according to exit polls. The general elections on Sunday (October 27) showedwhich raises uncertainty about the composition of the government of the fourth largest economy in the world.

A poll by Nippon TV shows that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has ruled Japan for most of its postwar history, and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, would get 198 of the 465 seats in the lower house of the Japanese parliament. .

That would be well short of the 233 votes needed to retain its majority and would be its worst electoral result since the coalition briefly lost power in 2009.

The night’s biggest winner, the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), is expected to win 157 as voters punished Ishiba’s party for a funding scandal and inflation.

The outcome could force parties to enter into power-sharing deals to govern, which could lead to political instability as the country faces adverse economic challenges and an increasingly tense security environment in East Asia. East.

The election comes nine days before voters in the United States – Japan’s closest ally – go to the polls in another unpredictable runoff.

“This election was very difficult for us,” a somber-looking Ishiba told TV Tokyo with about 40 percent of seats still to be declared.

He said he would wait for final results, likely expected Monday morning, before considering possible coalitions or other power-sharing deals.

A poll by public broadcaster NHK predicted that his coalition would win between 174 and 254 seats, and the CDPJ between 128 and 191 seats.

Ishiba called a snap vote immediately after being elected party leader last month, hoping to win a public mandate for his premiership. His predecessor, Fumio Kishida, resigned after his support collapsed amid anger over the cost-of-living crisis and the scandal over unrecorded donations to lawmakers.

The PLD has held an absolute majority since returning to power in 2012 after a brief period of opposition. He also briefly lost power in 1993, when a coalition of seven opposition parties formed a government that lasted less than a year.

Japanese stocks and the yen are expected to fall while yields on longer-term government bonds are expected to rise as investors respond to the uncertainty.

“Voters’ judgment of the ruling bloc was harsher than expected,” said Saisuke Sakai, senior economist at Mizuho Research and Technologies.

“Uncertainty over the continuity of the administration has increased and the stock market is expected to react tomorrow with a sell-off, particularly from foreign investors.”

POLITICAL AFFAIRS

Exit polls suggest that smaller parties, such as the Democratic People’s Party (DPP) or the Japan Innovation Party, could prove key to forming a government.

The DPP is expected to win between 20 and 33 seats and the Japan Innovation Party between 28 and 45, according to NHK poll results. But both propose policies that contradict the PLD line.

DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki did not rule out some cooperation with the LDP-led coalition, but Innovation Party leader Nobuyuki Baba rejected the idea.

The DPP calls for halving Japan’s 10 percent sales tax until real wages rise, a policy that is not supported by the LDP, while the Innovation Party has committed to toughening the rules on donations to clean up politics.

“The DPP has the ultimate goal of improving the country and ensuring that financial resources are allocated more appropriately, which is why I decided to vote for him,” said Keisuke Yoshitomi, a DPP office worker. 39 years old, after voting in a vote. polling station in Tokyo.

The Innovation Party opposes further interest rate increases, and the DPP leader said the Bank of Japan may have been hasty in raising rates, while the central bank wants to gradually wean Japan from decades of massive monetary stimulus.

Political wrangling could shake markets and pose a headache for the Bank of Japan if Ishiba chooses a partner who favors keeping interest rates near zero while the central bank wants to gradually raise them.

Japanese stocks fell 2.7 percent last week against the benchmark Nikkei index after opinion polls indicated for the first time that the ruling coalition could lose its majority.

“With a more fluid political landscape, it will become much more difficult to pass economic policies that include higher taxes, for example to finance defense spending,” said Masafumi Fujihara, associate professor of politics at Yamanashi University. .

“Without a strong government, it would be more difficult for the BOJ to raise rates and keep the weak yen under control.”