US President Joe Biden reportedly lifts restrictions on Kyiv’s use of long range missilesmeaning Ukrainian forces could fire American-made missiles into Russian territory for the first time.

The move, which comes weeks before Biden left office and hours after massive Russian missile and drone attacks, angered the Kremlin, which accused Washington of “throwing fuel on the fire.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the move would signify Washington’s direct involvement in the conflict, echoing a similar sentiment expressed by President Vladimir Putin in September.

The White House and President-elect Donald Trump have yet to comment, but Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., said: “The military-industrial complex seems to want to make sure they start World War III before that my father would have the chance to create peace and save lives.

The elder Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, repeatedly pledged during his campaign to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.

So how significant is the Biden administration’s latest move, and will it lead to an escalation of the war in Ukraine?

Why did the United States allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles in Russia?

The US decision was taken after the deployment of North Korean troops in Russia’s Kursk region, which was invaded by Ukrainian forces in August.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has for months been pressuring his Western allies, including the United States and the United Kingdom, to authorize the use of missiles against Russia, as Moscow’s forces make slow but steady advances in eastern Ukraine.

Al Jazeera diplomatic correspondent James Bays said “the goal of these Western nations is to support Ukraine, particularly in the Ukrainian-occupied Kursk region of Russia.”

Nearly 12,000 North Korean troops have been sent to Russia, according to U.S., Ukrainian and South Korean officials. They also accused Pyongyang of supplying weapons to Moscow.

While the United States secretly sent missiles to Ukraine in March, Ukraine was not authorized to use them to strike inside Russian territory. At the end of April, Ukraine used these missiles twice in Crimea annexed by Russia.

Biden made the decision with just nine weeks remaining in his presidency. His successor promised he would negotiate a quick end to the war, sparking uncertainty over whether the United States, Ukraine’s biggest arms supplier, would continue to send him military support.

Recent indications suggest that the United States would allow Ukraine to use these missiles. In September, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his British counterpart, Foreign Minister David Lammy, visited kyiv and met with Zelensky. Thanking the officials for their visit, Zelensky posted on his X account: “It is important that Ukrainian arguments are heard. This includes long-range weapons.

A day before the visit, Blinken told reporters in London that he and Lammy would “listen very carefully” to the issue and report back. The same day, Biden told reporters: “We’re working on it right now. »

What are these long-range missiles?

The missiles supplied by the United States to Ukraine are called the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). They have a range of 300 km (190 miles) and were first developed in the 1980s.

The ATACMS, built by US defense manufacturer Lockheed Martin, can be launched using HIMARS launchers sent to Ukraine by the US around July 2022. The missiles can also be launched by the M270 multiple launch rocket system American made, sent to Ukraine from the United Kingdom. in 2022.

Before sending the longer-range ATACMS, the United States sent Ukraine a shorter-range version capable of firing up to 165 km (100 miles) in October 2023.

Why are long-range missiles important to Ukraine?

Ukraine can use long-range tactical missiles to attack Russian and North Korean troop concentrations in Kursk, located on the Ukrainian border, as well as military equipment on Russian territory.

kyiv is most likely to attack Russia around the Kursk region, US officials said, according to the New York Times.

Ukrainian soldiers seized 28 settlements spanning about 1,000 square kilometers (386 square miles) in Kursk during an incursion launched in August. North Korean soldiers are believed to be concentrated near Kursk.

“Ukraine needs to be able to strike Russian supply chains, which it has brought beyond the current range of Ukrainian missiles,” Timothy Ash, a research associate in the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House.

Ash speculated that the decision to equip kyiv with long-range capabilities could also “aim to give Ukraine more leverage in future negotiations.”

“Once capacity has been given, it is harder to take away,” he said. “(Putin) will want to negotiate limits on Ukraine’s military capabilities.”

Ash added that a resumption of violence in Kursk is likely. On November 11, Zelensky said in a Telegram message that Ukrainian soldiers were fighting nearly “50,000 enemy troops” in Kursk. This came a day after The New York Times reported that Moscow had amassed 50,000 troops, including North Koreans, in Kursk.

How did Ukraine and Russia react?

Zelensky said in an evening speech on Sunday: “Today, many media outlets are saying that we have received authorization to take appropriate measures. »

He added: “Strikes are not done with words. Such things are not announced. The missiles will speak for themselves.

Moscow said the missile decision would lead to rising tensions.

“If such a decision were actually formulated and presented to the kyiv regime, then this would be a new, qualitatively new cycle of tensions and a qualitatively new situation from the point of view of American involvement in this conflict,” Peskov said.

“It is clear that the outgoing administration in Washington intends to take steps to continue to fuel the fire and create tension around this conflict,” he said.

Russian MP Maria Butina told the Reuters news agency that this would risk triggering a global conflict. “I have great hope that Trump will overcome this decision if it is made, because they are seriously risking the outbreak of a Third World War, which is in no one’s interest.”

Putin warned the West two months ago against allowing the use of long-range missiles on Russian territory.

“If this is the case, then, taking into account the change in the very essence of this conflict, we will make appropriate decisions based on the threats that will be created for us,” Putin told Russian state television at the time.

What’s next?

Ash said kyiv must use long-range missiles to weaken Russian offensive capabilities.

“It appears that Russia will intensify in the coming months, ahead of the Trump presidency and the likely negotiations. Ukraine must therefore be able to strike at longer range to weaken Russia’s offensive capabilities,” he said.

Putin congratulated Trump on his victory, calling him “brave,” adding that he was ready to hold talks with Trump. Despite this, Russia continues its attacks against Ukraine.

“Russia has been escalating anyway in recent weeks, apparently ignoring Trump’s request to Putin not to escalate,” Ash added.

The Kremlin, however, denied reports that Trump had spoken with Putin and urged the Russian leader not to escalate the war in Ukraine.

On Monday, Russia carried out its largest missile and drone strikes on Ukraine in months, targeting energy infrastructure. At least 11 people were killed in this attack, according to Ukrainian authorities.

The United Kingdom and France, which have also supplied Ukraine with long-range Storm Shadow missiles, could eventually allow kyiv to strike inside Russian territory. Storm Shadow missiles, also called SCALPs, can hit targets up to 250 km (155 miles) away.

French newspaper Le Monde, citing the country’s foreign minister, reported that Paris was willing to allow Ukraine to use its long-range missiles to strike inside Russian territory.