BANGKOK– Three well-armed militias launched a surprise joint offensive in the northeast Burma a year ago, breaking a strategic standoff with the regime’s military by quickly gaining large swathes of territory and inspiring others to attack across the country.

Before the offensive, military control appeared firmly entrenched thanks to its vast superiority in troops and firepower, and aided by material support from Russia and China. But today, it is falling further and further behind, with the loss of dozens of outposts, bases and strategic cities that even its leaders admit that it will be difficult to win it back.

The military seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, leading to intensified fighting with long-standing armed groups associated with Myanmar’s ethnic minority groups and triggering the formation of new pro-militias. democracy.

But until the launch of Operation 1027, named after its October 27 launch, the military, known as the Tatmadaw, had largely managed to avoid major casualties across the country.

Operation 1027 saw coordinated attacks by three of the most powerful ethnic armed groups – the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. , known together as the Alliance of the Three Brotherhoods – and they were able to quickly capture cities. and invade military bases and outposts along the Chinese border in northeastern Shan State.

Two weeks later, the The Arakan Army launched attacks in his Western state of origin, Rakhineand since then other militias and PDFs have joined them throughout the country.

A year later, resistance forces now fully or partially control a vast territory stretching from Rakhine State in the west, north, then south to Kayah and Kayin States, along the the Thai border. The Tatmadaw has retreated to the center around the capital Naypyidaw and the larger city Yangon.

Many expect the army to launch a counter-offensive when the rainy season comes to an end, bolstered by the influx of some 30,000 new troops since activation of conscription in February and its total and continued air superiority.

But at the same time, resistance groups are closing in on Mandalay, Myanmar’s second largest city, located in the center of the country.

Faced with threats from across the country, “there does not appear to be a viable path back for the military to regain the territory it has lost,” said Connor Macdonald of the advocacy group the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar.

“The army is on the defensive throughout the country, and every time it puts its energy into one part of the country, it basically has to move its troops and then finds itself vulnerable in other areas,” he said. he declared.

As the military faced setbacks in field fighting, it increasingly relied on indiscriminate air and artillery strikes, leading to a 95% increase in civilian deaths due to airstrikes and a 170% increase in the number of civilians killed by artillery since the 1027 offensive began, according to a report released last month by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights .

The Tatmadaw has been accused of deliberately targeting civilians in retaliation for perceived support for resistance militias, which he denies.

Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the fighting, and there are now more than 3 million internally displaced people in total, and some 18.6 million people in need, according to the UN .

As the front has expanded, militias have advanced out of their own ethnic areas, as when the Rakhine-based Arakan Army seized the Chin town of Paletwa in January, effectively gave rise to friction between the groups – foreshadowing possible future problems in the event of the Tatmadaw. ends up falling.

Currently, there is some degree of solidarity between disparate ethnic groups, with emphasis on a common enemy, but Aung Thu Nyein, director of communications at the think tank Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar, said declared that this does not translate into common aspirations.

If the Tatmadaw were to fall, it could lead to the fragmentation of Myanmar unless the groups work hard to resolve political and territorial disputes.

“It is unlikely that the resistance will be able to overthrow the junta, but I cannot rule out this scenario,” he said. “If we fail to build trust and common goals, it could lead to the Syria scenario.”

The political situation is complicated by the influence of neighboring China, which reportedly tacitly supported the 1027 offensive in what proved to be a successful attempt to end the organized crime activities that flourished along its border.

In January, Beijing used its close ties with the Tatmadaw and Three Brotherhood groups to broker a ceasefire in northern Shan, which lasted five months until the ethnic alliance opened phase two of the 1027 offensive in June, accusing the army of violating the rules. ceasefire.

China has been unhappy with the development, closing border crossings, cutting power to Myanmar towns and taking other measures in a so far unsuccessful attempt to end the fighting.