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Japanese politics undergoes rare dose of upheaval after snap elections
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Japanese politics undergoes rare dose of upheaval after snap elections

Getty Images Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba leaves after speaking to the media at the headquarters of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on October 27, 2024 in Tokyo, Japan. Getty Images

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has lost its majority

Japanese elections are normally regular, boring affairs – but this snap election was neither.

The dramatic vote follows a corruption scandal linked to political financing this came to light last year, implicating senior lawmakers and cabinet members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), tarnishing its image and provoking public anger.

It was the perfect storm: a scandal that saw dozens of LDP lawmakers investigated for pocketing millions of dollars in political fundraising revenue, while households struggled with the inflation, high prices, stagnant wages and a sluggish economy.

In the end, an angry and tired electorate sent a strong message during Sunday’s vote, punishing the PLD at the polls. And it was a blow: a party that had ruled Japan almost continuously since 1955 lost its single majority in the powerful lower house.

But there was no clear winner either. A divided opposition failed to emerge as a viable alternative when the public was looking for one.

Although badly damaged, the LDP nevertheless won more seats – 191 – than the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), whose final total stood at 148 seats.

“This election seems to be about voters who are fed up with a party and politicians they view as corrupt and dirty. But they don’t want to appoint a new leader,” said Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer at Kanda University of International Studies.

And yet, the fate of the former leaders remains uncertain. The LDP government coalition did not reach halfway – 233 seats out of the 465 members of the Diet – after its ally Komeito lost several seats, including that of its leader.

Even with Komeito’s 24 seats, the LDP will not be able to muster a majority.

It is a “harsh judgment,” said Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who was sworn in as prime minister only earlier this month after win a close race for party leadership.

Voters “expressed their strong desire for the PLD to reflect and become a party that will act in accordance with the will of the people,” he declared on Sunday, when the results were announced.

Getty Images Officials watch people vote in the general election at a polling station set up at a local school in Tokyo on October 27, 2024.Getty Images

Japan’s aging population poses one of the biggest challenges for the next government.

The hope was that Ishiba, as leader, could save the PLD in the vote – growing discontent and plummeting ratings had expelled the last Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida.

Still, Ishiba took a gamble when he announced early elections less than a month ago – and it backfired.

He and his party underestimated the extent of public anger and, more importantly, their willingness to respond to it.

To stay in power, the PLD will now have to form a coalition with the other parties it fought in the elections. And it will do so from a position of significant weakness, because it must negotiate and make concessions to survive.

It’s hard to overstate how rare this is: the LDP has always enjoyed a secure and stable place in Japanese politics.

And his record on governance is strong: when the opposition took power in 1993 and 2009, it ended badly.

Since the PLD returned to power in 2012, it has managed to win every election, almost uncontested. There has long been a certain resignation to the status quo, and the opposition remains unconvincing in the eyes of the Japanese people.

“I think we (Japanese) are very conservative,” Miyuki Fujisaki, a 66-year-old voter, told the BBC a few days before the election.

“It is very difficult for us to question and make changes. And when the ruling party changed once (and the opposition took power), nothing ultimately changed, which is why we tend to stay conservative. »

Fujisaki said she was initially unsure who to vote for, especially with the fundraising scandal hanging over the LDP. But given that she had always voted for them, she said she would probably do the same this time too.

Although the main opposition party, the CDP, has made significant gains, observers say these results are less due to voters’ support for the opposition than to their anger against the LDP.

Even if voters want to hold their politicians accountable, “in (their) minds … there’s really no one else” they trust to lead the country, Hall said.

This leaves Japan with a weakened LDP and a fragmented opposition.

The country has long been seen as a beacon of political stability, a haven for investors and a reliable U.S. ally in an increasingly tense Asia-Pacific. Uncertainty therefore concerns not only its own people, but also its neighbors and allies.

At the national level, a fragile coalition will not help restore the economy, raise wages and improve the well-being of a rapidly aging population.

And it will be even more difficult to regain the trust and respect of a politically weary public.