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Walmart’s Cheap Products Justify Its Expensive Inventory
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Walmart’s Cheap Products Justify Its Expensive Inventory

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It’s a rare retailer whose shares trade at a premium to those of Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet. But there are retailers, and then there is Walmart.

Operationally, the 800-pound gorilla of American retail is in a class of its own. While others have struggled to get inflation-weary consumers to open their wallets, Walmart US’s comparable sales rose 5.3 percent during the third quarter. That far exceeded expectations for a 3.7 percent increase, no small feat considering Walmart’s size. Its turnover was $648 billion last year. In addition to this flexibility, Walmart raised its full-year guidance for the second time this year.

Comparable sales column chart (year-over-year percent change) showing Walmart vs. Target: A tale of two retailers

It’s true that the stock itself isn’t a bargain after soaring nearly 64 percent this year. It trades on a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 33. That beats not only direct rival Target, but also Google parent Alphabet, Facebook owner Meta Platforms and smartphone supremo Apple, according to LSEG.

Line chart of stock price and index rebased to dollars showing Walmart shares are on track for the biggest annual gain in more than 20 years.

But this bonus is deserved. Walmart has met the challenges of a tepid economy and inflation with aplomb by attracting higher-income customers and developing alternative revenue streams. It continued to take market share from its competitors in the grocery and general merchandise sectors during the third quarter. High-income households earning $100,000 a year or more accounted for about three-quarters of stock gains during that period, the company said.

Line chart of price multiple against subsequent earnings showing Walmart is now more expensive than Tech

Operating profit is also growing faster than sales thanks to its range of higher-margin ancillary businesses. These include a third-party online marketplace, digital advertising and an Amazon Prime-like membership program called Walmart Plus. All these sectors are growing rapidly and are more profitable. This allowed Walmart to keep food prices low – and even reduce them – to drive traffic and put pressure on competitors. Few other brick-and-mortar retailers can claim to be able to do the same. Tighter inventory management also contributed to higher gross margins during the quarter.

A strong dollar and plans for tariffs touted by President-elect Donald Trump are some of the potential problems that could hurt Walmart. About a fifth of its sales come from outside the United States and the greenback’s rise this year could reduce the value of its non-cash revenues abroad.

But it should be more than manageable. Walmart’s scale and diversified business model enable it to manage nearly a decade of uninterrupted like-for-like sales growth. It may not be growing as fast as technology, but its prospects don’t depend on the need to invent entirely new business models – and there are fewer regulators eager to break it. Its shares are unlikely to end up in the liquidation aisles anytime soon.

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