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3 ways TikTok could survive a ban, with or without Trump’s help
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3 ways TikTok could survive a ban, with or without Trump’s help

Perhaps never before has such popular technology — about one in three American adults use TikTok, according to Pew Research — lived under such a cloud of doom.

Trump, who announced an ultimately unsuccessful ban on TikTok four years ago but changed his mind on the app while campaigning for president, could be TikTok’s savior.

Experts who spoke to my Post colleagues said Trump could order the Justice Department not to enforce the law signed this spring that requires the sale or ban of TikTok.

Or Trump would have the power as president to declare that TikTok followed the law, “whether it’s true or not,” Alan Rozenshtein, an associate professor of law at the University of Minnesota and former national security adviser to the Justice Department, wrote for Lawfare.

Representatives for TikTok and the Trump campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

TikTok is hoping and planning a Trump bailout. Top executives at TikTok have relaxed some content rules to appeal to conservatives, Information recently reported. They wanted Trump to start posting on the app — which he did this spring — because they believed he could influence Americans’ opinions on TikTok, the tech outlet said.

Whether because of Trump or not, many Americans have changed their minds about TikTok. In March 2023, about half of Americans supported banning TikTok in the United States, but by this summer, only 32% did so, according to Pew Research surveys.

Option 2: Beat a ban in court

TikTok argued in legal documents that the U.S. government did not have compelling national security reasons to override Americans’ free speech rights by banning TikTok.

(Reminder: Many U.S. politicians are concerned that the Chinese Communist Party is using TikTok to distort Americans’ beliefs or collect personal data. U.S. officials have not provided public evidence that these abuses took place.)

At a court hearing in September, judges seemed skeptical that TikTok’s free speech rights outweighed national security concerns. If judges rule against TikTok in a decision expected within weeks, the company could appeal to the Supreme Court.

Rozenshtein believes the government’s legal arguments for upholding the ban are strong, and he doubts the Supreme Court will side with TikTok. “You never know,” he said, “but I’m very skeptical that the courts will be able to save TikTok.”

Option 3: A halfway measurement

There is a recent example of TikTok overcoming government opposition that threatened the app.

Last year, the Indonesian government cracked down on foreign online shopping apps, including TikTok, fearing they would hurt local businesses. TikTok had to suspend its popular shopping feature, TikTok Shop, in the country.

However, within a few months, TikTok Shop found a way to reopen. TikTok merged with an Indonesian e-commerce company and voilà: TikTok was essentially no longer a foreign e-commerce company. He was an Indonesian.

It’s not a perfect comparison to the U.S. ban, but the Indonesian case shows that TikTok can change just enough to satisfy a skeptical government.

Perhaps TikTok’s business partnership with Oracle, the software company that was influential in the first Trump administration, can pave the way for an interim measure that could allow the White House to declare victory over China and move forward.

Oracle declined to comment.

Popularity, wise strategies or powerful allies have protected certain technologies like Uber and cryptocurrencies from laws and regulations that threatened their existence. TikTok law could be different.

Relying on a dynamic president is not a foolproof strategy for TikTok. And fears that the Chinese government will use technology like TikTok to harm the United States are one of the few bipartisan issues in Washington.

Jennifer Huddleston, a technology policy specialist at the Cato Institute, worries that the TikTok sell-or-ban law gives current or future presidents too much unchecked power over which apps can survive in the United States.

That means a threat of a ban could come at any time for TikTok and other apps from China or other countries considered adversaries, said Huddleston, whose organization generally favors less government intervention.

People who use TikTok will have to live with the uncertainty that the app could be kicked out of the country. It’s probably a good idea to download a copy of your TikTok data and try to follow your favorite TikTok creators on other apps.