(The Center Square) – California gas prices could rise as much as $1.15 per gallon next year thanks to the state’s new carbon credit system, taxes, refinery regulations and shutdowns refineries. That would require the typical Californian to earn up to $1,000 more per year in pre-tax income to “break even,” according to an analysis by a USC Marshall School of Business professor.

“This increase contributes to inflation and the high cost of living in California, and has a disproportionate and negative impact on low-income Californians,” wrote Professor Michael A. Mische. “To offset the increases, the average Californian driving an internal combustion vehicle will need to earn an additional $600.00 to $1,000.00 per year before taxes in order to “break even” with 2024 prices, according to the quality of the gasoline he buys. »

Days after the November election, the California Air Resources Board – a regulatory commission almost entirely appointed by the governor – pass further updates to the state’s low-carbon fuel standard, requiring producers of “dirty” transportation fuel to purchase more credits from producers of “clean” transportation fuel. The new LCFS will provide about $105 billion in electric vehicle charging credits and $8 billion in hydrogen credits largely funded by gasoline and diesel fees, which the state said would be passed on on drivers and consumers.

Mische initially estimated that the state’s recently adopted carbon credit requirement would increase retail prices for regular gasoline in 2025 by between 40 and 65 cents per gallon — similar to that estimated by the Kleinman Center for Energy Policy from the University of Pennsylvania.

He then estimated that the governor’s new refinery regulations he passed during a special legislative session last month would raise prices between 5 and 27 cents per gallon, and that the closure of the Phillips 66 refinery announced after the new refinery regulations would add another 8 to 14 cents. cents per gallon.

Since California’s gas taxes increase with the state’s price index, Mische estimates the gas tax will increase between one and two cents per gallon in 2025.

Together, these changes total an increase of 55 cents to 90 cents per gallon for regular gasoline in 2025, and 95 cents to $1.15 for premium gasoline.

Republicans pointed out that the governor has now moved away from Sacramento, the state capital, and will now be driven to work in a gas-powered car.

“Newsom is completely out of touch with reality, having recently purchased a $9.1 million mansion in Kentfield, a wealthy town 90 miles from his job in Sacramento,” said Senate Minority Leader Brian W. Jones, R-San Diego, in a statement. “While ordinary Californians face difficult choices between putting food on the table or putting gas in their car, Newsom will be driven to work from his luxury home in a taxpayer-funded car, running on taxpayer-funded gasoline, on the rare occasion he decides to run.