Time flies when you’re having fun. And Nvidia (NVDA 0.80%) shareholders are having a lot of fun this year. The stock rose more than 180%. He could very well fly even higher.

Nvidia plans to announce its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on November 20, just over three weeks from now. Should you buy Nvidia stock hand in hand before then?

If history is any guide…

Investors may want to think long and hard about buying Nvidia stock ahead of its third-quarter update. The company has an excellent track record of performing above expectations.

Aswath Damodaran, a finance professor at New York University, recently noted that Nvidia has beaten Wall Street profit estimates in all but two quarters (both in 2022) over the past five years. If history is to be believed, the chances of the company generating better-than-expected earnings next month are pretty good.

Damodaran provided two potential reasons for Nvidia’s impressive run of results beating analyst profit estimates. One possibility is that the company is adept at recognizing revenue and recording expenses so it can exceed Wall Street’s expectations. Another reason is that the demand for Nvidia processors graphics processing units (GPUs) is growing so quickly that analysts’ forecasts are not keeping up.

I think Damodaran’s second scenario is more compelling. Nvidia may have enough wiggle room in accounting rules to sometimes manage higher profits. However, such manipulation would not realistically allow the company to consistently beat expectations almost every quarter over five years.

But there’s an even better argument for the second potential reason the NYU professor puts forward for Nvidia’s outperformance. The demand for Nvidia GPUs unequivocally has has accelerated faster than Wall Street has predicted in the past because analysts said so themselves.

Will history repeat itself?

Should investors expect Nvidia to do it again? Based on management’s comments over the past few months, there are some reasons to be optimistic.

Nvidia CFO Colette Kress said during the company’s second-quarter earnings call that demand for GPU Hopper “will continue to grow in the second half” of the year. She also later noted that Nvidia estimates its adjusted gross margin will be about the same level in the third quarter as it reported in the second quarter.

Consensus estimates among 37 analysts surveyed by LSEG relate to third-quarter revenue of $32.9 billion and adjusted earnings of $0.74 per share. These numbers reflect sequential growth of approximately 9.7% and 8.8%, respectively.

In the second quarter, Nvidia’s revenue jumped 15% from the previous quarter, with adjusted earnings per share up 11%. The company’s growth could slow somewhat in the third quarter and still be enough for Nvidia to beat Wall Street estimates. However, for what it’s worth, Nvidia is forecasting third-quarter revenue of $32.5 billion, which is lower than analysts’ expectations. Of course, the company is known for sandbagging its tips.

Two things to keep in mind

So, does it make sense to buy Nvidia stock before November 20? Maybe. However, I think investors should keep two things in mind.

First, higher profits do not necessarily translate into significant stock market gains. Nvidia beat analyst estimates with its second-quarter results in August, but its stock price immediately fell and continued to fall for several more days.

Second (and more importantly), whether you buy Nvidia stock before or after the company’s third-quarter update probably won’t make much difference in your long-term returns. If you’re a long-term investor and believe the shift to accelerated computing and artificial intelligence (AI) are unstoppable trends, any time is probably a good time to buy Nvidia.

On that note, I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out that the bulk of Nvidia’s next quarterly update might be more information on customer enthusiasm for the new Blackwell chips. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has already said this demand for Blackwell is “crazy.” Perhaps the best way for the company to beat expectations in its third-quarter update will be its outlook related to the new GPU platform. We will know soon.