By Sean Bellmilitary analyst

Russia’s decision to launch an experimental ballistic missile at Ukraine early Thursday morning made headlines, but is it really a critical escalation of the war in Ukraine?

In his nightly speech, President Putin claimed that the non-nuclear ballistic missile was aimed at Ukraine’s defense industry and was launched in response to Western approval of Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons on Russian territory.

Footage of the strike shows a number of independent streaks of light as several projectiles hurtle toward their targets at high speed, although the resulting explosions appear very limited.

The Russian president says the experimental missile – the Oreshnik (Hazel Tree) – is a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) believed to be based on the older Russian RS26 IRBM.

The missile has between six and eight independent warheads – conventional or nuclear – that can be targeted individually, and the missile has a range of approximately 3,100 miles, meaning the Oreshnik is capable of striking targets across the Europe and the east coast of America. .

However, behind this seemingly alarming development, it is clear that Russia is simply continuing its alarmist rhetoric intended to dissuade the West from continuing its financial and military support for Ukraine.

It is extremely rare for new or experimental military capabilities to be demonstrated to potential adversaries, as such demonstrations provide invaluable analytical data, which helps identify vulnerabilities.

Additionally, Russia has very limited stockpiles of this new missile, meaning its short-term military usefulness is very limited. So why did Russia carry out this strike at this time?

Most of the data on Oreshnik’s capability was provided by the Russians, particularly on the range of this intermediate-range ballistic missile.

The Russian message is clear: Europe and the United States are within range of modern Russian weapons.

However, for many decades, Russia has deployed thousands of ballistic missiles capable of striking targets all over the world. The clear intention of this latest demonstration by President Putin is therefore to intimidate the West – this is not a new capability!

Russia has historically sought to dissuade the West from supporting Ukraine by threatening to escalate the conflict, but there is no evidence that Russia actually desires a broader conflict with NATO.

Furthermore, Russia is responsible for the illegal invasion of Ukraine, the destruction of communities and hundreds of thousands of victims.

Russia has purchased weapons from Iran and North Korea, exploited dual-use technology for military purposes from China and also deployed North Korean troops in the war in Ukraine.

Therefore, the suggestion that the West escalated the conflict by supplying weapons to Ukraine lacks credibility.

It should be noted that the United States was warned of the imminent launch of ballistic missiles by the Russians through established nuclear risk reduction channels, making it clear that despite Russian rhetoric, there is no appetite for a nuclear escalation.