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Harris vs. Trump: Here’s why voter turnout could fall in 2024
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Harris vs. Trump: Here’s why voter turnout could fall in 2024

According to CNN political analyst Harry Enten, some polling signs suggest that turnout could fall in next week’s election.

Enten explained Monday why fewer people might vote in this year’s election than in the 2020 election, as Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump try to shore up their support in the final days of the campaign . He said on CNN that voters are less enthusiastic about this year’s race and don’t think the stakes are as high as they were in 2020.

He said a smaller percentage of registered voters said they were confident about voting and smaller percentages were also extremely motivated to vote.

“In 2020, at this point, 88% of registered voters said they were sure they would vote. Where are we today? It’s only 81 percent…that’s a drop of seven points,” he said. “How about being extremely motivated to vote? At this point in 2020, it was 73 percent. Look now, it’s only 65 percent. Again, a high single-digit drop – eight points in this particular case.

“So when you look at the polls, when you look at these different indicators, all of them just seem weaker than they were four years ago. But for me, the polls here, which are often quite predictive, are the biggest nugget, where we’re seeing fewer people saying they’re sure to vote and fewer people saying they’re extremely motivated,” Enten said.

He then explained that people are less likely to vote because fewer people think the 2024 election is the most important election of their lives compared to the 2020 election.

“Every year people say, ‘This is the most important election ever,’ right? Well, they actually polled this: the most important election of my lifetime. In 2020, look at the 74% of registered voters who said that – yes – this was the most important election of their lives. This time, it’s actually less. It’s 65 percent,” Enten said.

“And that’s still a pretty impressive number, but it represents a nearly 10-point drop in the number of Americans or registered voters who say this is the most important election of their lives, despite the fact “If all these politicians say it, voters are actually slightly less likely to agree with them,” he added.

He also added that low turnout — which generally favors Republicans — likely won’t favor either party in this year’s election because the race is historically close in the polls. Recent polls show Harris and Trump neck and neck polls almost a week before election day.

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