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Here’s Who’s Leading the Trump-Harris 2024 Presidential Race in Nevada
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Here’s Who’s Leading the Trump-Harris 2024 Presidential Race in Nevada

Top line

Vice President Kamala Harris holds a lead over former President Donald Trump in the last three surveys of likely voters in the crucial state of Nevada, where an erosion of support among Latino voters threatens to hurt Harris’ chances of win state next week.

Key facts

Harris is up three points, 49% to 46%, according to a New York Times/Siena report. survey of likely Nevada voters released Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points).

Harris leads by one point, 48%-47%, in an Emerson poll released Friday (margin of error 3.6), and she is ahead 51%-47% in a investigation of likely voters released this week by the Cooperative Election Study, a massive set of university-backed national polls (933 respondents).

Meanwhile, Trump is up 48-47% according to CNN/SSRS. investigation published Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points).

Harris also leads 48.8% to 48.3% (essentially a tie) among likely voters in a Bloomberg/Morning poll. investigation published on October 23 (margin of error of 5 points), she is behind Trump by 47 to 46% in a AARP survey of likely voters published on October 22 (margin of error 4), while a The Wall Street Journal an October 11 poll (margin of error 4) shows Trump with an unusually large five-point advantage.

Trump has an average advantage of 0.7 points in Nevada, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted study. poll average.

Nevada – which is the smallest swing state, with just six electoral votes – has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2008, and President Joe Biden beat Trump there by 2.4 points in 2020.

Large number

56%. That’s the share of Latino voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016, compared to 49% in 2024, according to a September survey. NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC Poll.

Key context

Support for Harris among Latino voters will be crucial to her success in Arizona and Nevada, where Hispanics and Latinos are found. about 30% of the population and polls show that it has lost the support of major demographic groups. Biden carried Nevada’s Latino voters to Trump 61% to 35% in 2020, according to CNN leaving the pollswhile Harris leads Trump 56 to 40 percent in Nevada, according to an October report from USA Today/Suffolk University. survey Latino voters. Harris particularly struggles with Latino men, according to the survey which found that 53% of Latino voters ages 18 to 34 in Nevada support Trump and 40% support Harris, while 53% of Latino men ages 35 to 49 in the state support Trump and 39% support Harris. Immigration and inflation top the list of concerns among Latino voters in Nevada, according to a USA Today/Suffolk poll, which found 37 percent said inflation was their top concern and 17 percent said Immigration said.

Tangent

The Harris campaign made a last-minute appeal to Hispanic men in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada this month with a “Hombres con Harris” tour featuring members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, including Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., who is running against Trump ally Kari Lake for the Arizona Senate. The tour will include stops at Latino-owned small businesses, sports bars, restaurants, union halls and other community venues frequented by Latino men, his campaign said.

Further reading

Trump-Harris 2024 polls in Wisconsin: Latest polls show Trump has a slight advantage (Forbes)

Swing State Polls for 2024 Elections: Trump Holds Lead in Arizona While Harris Holds Narrow Advantage in Pennsylvania (Updated) (Forbes)

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 polls: Harris and Trump virtually tied in latest polls as race tightens (Forbes)

Trump-Harris 2024 Pennsylvania Polls: Harris Leads Crucial Swing State in Latest Poll (Forbes)

Trump-Harris 2024 polls in Michigan: Harris leads in latest poll (Forbes)

Trump-Harris 2024 Georgia Polls: Harris Holds Surprise 1-Point Lead in New Survey (Forbes)

Trump-Harris 2024 polls in North Carolina: Trump overtakes Harris (Forbes)