Suddenly, conference tiebreakers are an afterthought. In three of the Power Four conferences, the paths to the conference championship games should be pretty clear.

In the Big Ten, Indiana’s winner at Ohio State on Nov. 23 is scheduled to face Oregon. In the Big 12, the winner of Kansas State at Iowa State in the regular-season finale is scheduled to meet BYU in Dallas; Never before has Farmageddon meant so much. And in the ACC, SMU and Miami will be favored in every remaining game as the bottom two undefeated in conference play.

However, the SEC could become intriguing. If – and it’s a big if – LSU beats Alabama this week, and if Texas goes on the road and beats Texas A&M in the regular-season finale, there’s a good chance Georgia will 11-1 be excluded from the SEC title game.

Welcome to life with busy conferences and unbalanced schedules.

College Football Week: 10 Things You Shouldn’t Overreact To

Don’t overreact to this thought from the SEC. There are still hurdles to overcome, but the SEC’s first year of scattered divisions could lead to absolute, joyful chaos.

In this scenario — Georgia, Texas and LSU all finish 7-1 in SEC play — tiebreakers would reach the total winning percentage of each team’s conference opponents.

As things are currently progressing, the Bulldogs’ schedule would be slowed down by playing Tri-State Mississippi, Kentucky and Auburn, combining for two SEC wins to date.

The first hurdle to overcome for this delicious hilarity is that LSU beats Alabama this weekend.

Brian Kelly has yet to lose tonight in Baton Rouge, despite being in his third season with the Tigers. Most notably, he upset Alabama on a Saturday night in Death Valley in his first season. This only applies to this moment, but the reputation of Tiger Stadium will show in the line of play.

Douglas’s advice: Alabama and LSU were inactive this week. This gap should open with the tide favored by a basket, roughly on the hook. Just know that this is a time where home advantage will factor into the initial movement of the line. If you want to support the Tigers on the road to SEC drama, act fast.

Overreacting to Penn State’s loss to Ohio State, but only in the sense that the Nittany Lions are now more dangerous than ever.

Penn State knows better than anyone that it hasn’t beaten a quality opponent this year. The Nittany Lions know how much stress they may or may not have had in preparations up until last week.

And they know they missed an opportunity against Ohio State this weekend.

Now at 7-1, Penn State should be favored by double digits in every remaining game, only a trip to Minnesota possibly by two touchdowns.

At 11-1, the Nittany Lions are still expected to make the 12-team College Football Playoff, even if that record doesn’t feature a signature win, bBut Penn State must remove all doubt moving forward.

Douglas’s advice: Start treating the Nittany Lions like they’re going to throw everything at every opponent, including the kitchen sink. Any spread less than -17 against Washington this weekend should be adopted. James Franklin has no choice but to move forward, and with offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki drawing up game plans, Penn State won’t look like a conservative any time soon.

Overreact to the absence of Army quarterback Bryson Daily.

The Black Knights surprised everyone by announcing their star quarterback would miss this weekend’s rivalry game against Air Force, a complete unknown until mid-morning Saturday. This shock moved the line to -18 before the weekend kicked off at -21.5 or -22.

And that absence mattered, with Army winning just 20-3 without Daily. Most notably, his passing explosiveness disappeared, with backup quarterback Dewayne Coleman going 5-for-8 for 48 yards.

The daily stats may seem modest, but over the last five games he’s averaging 110 passing yards on 4.6 of 7.4 attempts per game. In other words, his completions averaged 23.9 yards.

The army did not specify what injury or illness kept himonly that it is expected this season.

Douglas’s advice: Expect Daily to miss this week in North Texas. Army should be favored by double digits, and the Mean Green’s rushing defense is dismal. The Knights shouldn’t need Daily to get a win, and he will then have two full weeks to recover before facing Notre Dame. The spread will be properly adjusted for Daily’s absence, but it may be worth attacking an immediate Under on Sunday, anything north of 60 stands out.

College Football Week: 10 Things You Should Definitely Act On

Also overreacting to Florida quarterback DJ Lagway’s apparent hamstring injury on Saturday.

No doubt, Gators head coach Billy Napier will be wary of Lagway’s status all week. This is all too common in college football these days and it’s a frustration for us bettors.

At best, Lagway will be lame in Texas. More likely, Florida needs to turn to Aidan Warner. This is going to go badly.

Douglas’s advice: Again, quarterback worry will be factored into the spread; there’s more likely to be value in the Under considering Florida might not score at all. Napier will not ignore this: they may well implement a slower offensive approach, simply in the hope of reducing the scale of the blowout. Napier is set to keep his job, a moderately respectable loss would help. Any total north of 45.5 should welcome a bet on the Under.

Continue to overreact to the damage done to the roster by late-cycle coaching hires.

The damage done to these lists has not yet been fully understood. To date, the nine programs that hired new coaches in mid-January or later are 23-42-1 ATS, including 3-3-1 last week and 7-7-1 the last two weeks, not counting Washington’s outright victory and the ATS victory. against Michigan earlier this season, as both teams fit that description.

These nine teams: UCLA, Michigan, Washington, Boston College, Arizona, Georgia State, Buffalo, South Alabama and San Jose State.

Clearly, some teams have leveled expectations, which is why two moments were specifically highlighted last week. Those two went 1-0-1, with the surge coming only because UConn so generously coughed up a cover against Georgia State.

In the same spirit…

Douglas’s advice: UCLA upsets Nebraska, a real surprise. Now the Bruins host Iowa. Here’s the thing…the Hawkeyes could have a good offense now? Iowa scored 42 points against Wisconsin this weekend, although one touchdown came on an extremely short field. So call it a 35-point performance. Last week, 40 points including 24 legitimate against Northwestern.

What has changed? Quarterback Brendan Sullivan provides a more complete offense than Cade McNamara ever did, but that has yet to be fully factored into punters’ evaluations. Iowa should be favored by double digits.

Second, Michigan travels to Indiana this weekend. Let’s keep it simple: The Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last five losses, below the bookmakers’ expectations of an average of 11.9 points in those four ATS losses. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are 8-1 against the spread this season. In Big Ten play, they exceeded expectations by an average of 19.5 points. Take Indiana to -13.

Always remember that this is a silly sport played with an oblong ball.

HE THROWED THE BALL FROM HIS TEAMMATE’S MASK THEN INTERCEPTED IT!!! pic.twitter.com/CatsWpNB0q

– Blankets (@Blankets) November 3, 2024

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