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College Football Conference Tiebreaker: Breakdown of Power Four Races

Umito November 16, 2024

Prepare for the possibility of an eight-way tie atop the SEC standings.

It’s not even that hard to imagine. This is all it would take:

First, No. 10 Georgia beats No. 4 Tennessee on Saturday. Second, one of No. 3 Texas and No. 15 Texas A&M loses once before winning the rivalry game that ends in late November. Then all of No. 9 Alabama, No. 11 Mississippi, No. 22 LSU and Missouri win.

And there it is: an eight-way tie that represents the most chaotic conference race in Power Four history.

In this case, the conference championship game would be a rematch between Alabama and LSU, since the SEC would break the tie based on the combined winning percentage of all conference opponents.

These are the kinds of things we’re dealing with when trying to figure out how the Power Four will play out for the rest. With three weeks to go, here’s where each conference stands:

ACC

Competitors: No. 13 SMU (5-0), No. 16 Clemson (6-1), No. 12 Miami (5-1), Pittsburgh (3-2).

Miami still has an advantage over Clemson despite losing to Georgia Tech. If both teams finish with a loss, the Hurricanes will advance to the ACC championship game with their victory against Louisville. The Tigers lost to the Cardinals earlier this month. That leaves Clemson rooting for Miami to lose to Wake Forest or Syracuse, which would give the Tigers sole possession of second place.

SMU is one game ahead in the field with three games remaining: Boston College, Virginia and California. The Mustangs could lose once and stay ahead of Clemson, again thanks to a win against Louisville.

Pittsburgh is still alive in the ACC race, if only by a fingernail. First, the Panthers must beat Clemson, Louisville and Boston College, the latter two on the road. Then they would need Miami to lose once or SMU to lose twice. The tiebreaker in the case of a three-way tie would be the winning percentage of conference opponents, a metric that favors the Panthers.

Pittsburgh’s past and future opponents in the ACC are currently 26-19, well ahead of Miami (18-28) and SMU (18-29).

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Big 12

Competitors: No. 8 Brigham Young (6-0), No. 20 Colorado (5-1), No. 25 Iowa State (4-2), No. 19 Kansas State (4-2), Arizona State (4-2) .

BYU has a large margin for error with three games remaining in conference play. The Cougars could even lose twice and make the championship game if Kansas State wins, which would eliminate Iowa State and Arizona State. BYU would then face Colorado due to a head-to-head victory against K-State.

Colorado is in the game by winning against Utah, Kansas and Oklahoma State. THE Buffaloes can drop one and meet BYU if Kansas State also loses, negating the Wildcats’ head-to-head tiebreaker. Conversely, the Wildcats need to win, knocking out Iowa State and Arizona State and having Colorado lose.

Arizona State has snuck into the conversation and has a better chance than one might expect with upcoming games against BYU, Kansas State and rival Arizona. Winning would eliminate the Wildcats from consideration. If Colorado loses once and both teams are tied for second behind the Cougars, the eventual tiebreaker between the two teams would be the record of the next highest-ranked common opponent. In this case, the Sun Devils would advance with a win against Kansas State.

Big Ten

Competitors: No. 1 Oregon (7-0), No. 6 Indiana (7-0), No. 2 Ohio State (5-1), No. 5 Penn State (5-1 ).

The Big Ten race is the easiest to decode in the Power Four. Oregon is a virtual lock for the championship game ahead of games against Wisconsin and Washington; the Ducks would essentially have to lose both to be eliminated, which is possible but highly unlikely.

Indiana would face the Ducks with a win next weekend against Ohio State. The Hoosiers could even lose to Purdue in late November, as beating the Buckeyes would give them a joint advantage over Penn State. OSU would advance with a win against Indiana barring a collapse the following Saturday against Michigan.

Penn State needs help. The Nittany Lions would first have to beat Purdue, Minnesota and Maryland. Next, Ohio State has to beat Indiana but lose to Michigan. That would leave PSU and IU with the same overall record and record against common opponents, leaving the Big Ten to break the tie by comparing the combined records of each team’s conference opponents. As of now, Penn State’s conference opponents are 24-34 overall while Indiana’s are 21-36.

SECOND

Competitors: Tennessee (5-1), Texas A&M (5-1), Texas (4-1), Georgia (5-2), Mississippi (4-2), Alabama (4-2), LSU (3-2), Missouri (3-2).

Madness will ensue within the SEC and cause pain, aggravation and frustration for everyone involved.

In a perfect world, Tennessee beats Georgia and Vanderbilt and meets the winner of Texas and Texas A&M. If everyone takes care of their business elsewhere, the Volunteers and Longhorns or Aggies will be the only SEC teams to suffer a conference loss. A&M also faces Auburn while Texas faces Arkansas and Kentucky.

Georgia is in dire straits even with a win against the Volunteers, as the Bulldogs don’t own the tiebreaker with Mississippi and Alabama. A path to Atlanta requires winning while the Rebels and Crimson Tide lose once. Another requires winning, one of the Tide and Rebels loses once and Texas loses to the Razors or Wildcats but beating A&M. In this scenario, the Bulldogs own the tiebreaker against the Longhorns and have a chance to avenge one of this year’s losses.

All Alabama really needs to control its destiny is for Georgia to win on Saturday. In the event that Texas A&M and Texas are sole owners of first place and there is a deadlock of two-loss teams, the Crimson Tide rises to the top thanks to last weekend’s victory against LSU and in comparing the combined winning percentage of all conference opponents. .

Arkansas might even hold the key to determining the lineup for the SEC championship game. Consider a scenario in which Texas wins and Georgia beats Tennessee, leaving the Longhorns in first place and six teams tied for second. If the Razorbacks then beat Missouri in the season finale, LSU would have the winning percentage of top opponents a hair ahead of the Crimson Tide.