An incipient weather disturbance in the southwest Caribbean Sea appears increasingly likely to soon develop into at least one incipient weather disturbance in the southwest Caribbean Sea. tropical depressionaccording to the National Hurricane Center.

Prospects for an area of ​​the southwest Caribbean Sea.
(FOX Weather)

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The system, now designated Invest 97L According to the NHC, it was still just a group of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwest Caribbean Sea late Saturday morning.

But gradual development is expected over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the coming days as the system moves over the central and western Caribbean, according to the NHC. Three Hurricane Hunter flights are planned in area 97L on Sunday and Monday.

WHAT IS AN “INVEST”?

With a subtropical system in the North Atlantic earn Patty’s name early Saturday morningIf this Caribbean disturbance reaches tropical storm strength, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic list will be Rafael.

“There is general consensus in the computer forecast model projections that the system will be at or near tropical storm strength when it reaches the southern Gulf on Wednesday or Thursday,” the weather hurricane specialist said. from FOX. Brian Norcross. “A dense plume of tropical moisture is expected to turn northward with the potential storm. This will increase the threat of flooding over the Caribbean islands west of Puerto Rico starting Monday. Some of the moisture could reach South Florida mid-week.”

But Norcross says once the system is in the Gulf, forecasts become fuzzy with weaker steering currents adding uncertainty to the forecast.

“If the system remains relatively weak, it seems more likely that it will drift west, perhaps toward the Mexican coast,” Norcross said. “If it is on the stronger side, however, it could continue north toward part of the U.S. Gulf Coast.”

But the storm could still encounter hostile atmospheric conditions if it attempts to approach the United States, with plenty of dry air in the Gulf of Mexico and an unfavorable wind pattern aloft.

“So while it’s possible Rafael is capable of strengthening in the southern Gulf, a significant storm on the coast seems unlikely, based on what we currently know,” Norcross said, adding that while the system would reach the coast one day, based on the current current. calendar, this would happen around next weekend.

“Obviously we’re going to spend another week watching the tropics, although the odds of a significant storm hitting the United States seem low,” he said. “The forecast for a week from now is still unclear, of course, so stay tuned.”

BRYAN NORCROSS: FORECAST CONSENSUS SHOWS TROPICAL SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARDS THE GULF NEXT WEEK

Another disturbance in the northeastern Caribbean Sea could combine with 97L

The NHC is also monitoring an area of ​​low pressure in the northeastern Caribbean Sea, but this system is unlikely to develop over the next week.

An area to watch in the Caribbean Sea is moving north-northwestward in the coming days.
(FOX Weather)

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“Heavy tropical downpours will affect the northeastern Caribbean islands over the next few days as the system moves westward,” Norcross said. “Next week it will likely be absorbed by the disturbances developing in the Caribbean.”

The National Hurricane Center gives this system a slight chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next few days. Even if that were to happen, it wouldn’t change the weather forecast, Norcross said.

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER

North Atlantic: welcome to subtropical storm Patty

In the North Atlantic, a powerful storm transformed into subtropical storm Pattythe National Hurricane Center said Saturday morning.

Subtropical Storm Patty.
(FOX Weather)

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Patty had experienced winds of 65 mph and was about 300 miles west/northwest of the Azores, the NHC said.

The storm, previously designated Invest 96L, is expected to maintain its current strength on Saturday, then gradually weaken on Sunday, possibly becoming a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday evening, according to the NHC.

The remnants of the storm could possibly reach Portugal and western Spain early next week.