Agricultural production fell in the third quarter as bad weather and swine fever outbreaks led to contractions in the crop, livestock and fishing sectors.

The value of agricultural and fishery production, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Wednesday, fell to P397.4 billion in July-September, from the previous quarter’s P414.4 billion and the 412.7 billion pesos from the previous year.

The 3.7 percent decline worsened from the -3.2 percent and -0.2 percent recorded in the second quarter a year ago.

The result will have weighed on economic growth for the period, data for which will be published today by the PSA.

Economists interviewed by Manila weather expect gross domestic product growth to slow to 5.7 percent from 6.4 percent in the second quarter, below the government’s 6.0 to 7.0 percent target for 2024 , mainly due to weak public and private spending.

Since the beginning of the year, agricultural production has been valued at 1.24 trillion pesos, down slightly by 2.2% from 1.27 trillion pesos from January to September 2023.

The Ministry of Agriculture cited bad weather and the African swine fever (ASF) outbreak as main contributors to the contraction in production.

Crops, which accounted for the bulk, or 53.2 percent, of total production, fell 5.1 percent to P211.6 billion. The decline improved from -8.6 percent in the second quarter, when the sector’s output reached 220 billion pesos.

Palay (unmilled rice), the country’s largest crop, saw production drop 13.3 percent to P72.97 billion. Bananas, in second place with 38.93 billion pesos, contracted 1.1 percent.

Sugarcane accounted for the largest decline of 83.8 percent, or 392 million pesos.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said the combined effects of El Niño and La Niña weighed on palay production, which accounted for 18.4 percent of total production in the quarter .

“We are implementing changes in the rice crop calendar and building infrastructure such as water retention dams to mitigate the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector,” he said.

Livestock, with a share of 15.5 percent, or 61.6 billion pesos, in total production, recorded a decline of 6.7 percent in the last quarter, the production of pigs, goats and carabao having fallen by 8.0 percent, 4.1 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.

These offset gains of 6.0 percent and 0.9 percent seen for dairy and cattle.

Poultry is the only product group that recorded an increase in production value, growing by 5.8 percent. It accounted for 17.3 percent of total production, or 68.6 billion pesos.

Production gains were recorded for chicken (6.6 percent) and chicken (6.0 percent) eggs, but production of duck and duck eggs fell by 3.2 percent and 5.7 percent, respectively.

Finally, the value of fishery production fell by 5.5 percent to P55.48 billion and accounted for 14.0 percent of overall agricultural production. Losses were recorded for the majority of species monitored, led by the grouper (lapu-lapu) which experienced the largest decline of 31.9 percent.

Of the five species that recorded gains, bigeye tuna grew the most at 40.1 percent.