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Three reasons why the Packers will beat the Lions

Umito November 4, 2024

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are 2.5-point underdogs at FanDuel Sportsbook for Sunday’s NFC North showdown against the Detroit Lions.

Is this rare? This will be the 50th home game coached by Matt LaFleur. He’s been an underdog seven times, including last year’s 34-20 loss to the Lions.

Here are three reasons why the Packers will beat the Lions this time.

1. Josh Jacobs

There’s a reason Jacobs hasn’t gotten many touches in some games. This is so he can be at his best for matches like this.

Whether it’s Jordan Love or Malik Willis at quarterback, the offense should start with Jacobs. Jacobs led the way in the Week 2 win over the Colts, when Willis started, and last week at Jacksonville, when Willis played most of the second half.

Detroit’s run defense is its only weakness. Well, weakness may be a strong word, but the Lions are 22nd with 4.66 yards allowed per carry this season and 19th in expected points adjusted to schedule. They have given up more than 130 rushing yards in three of their last four games.

Fixing it was a priority this week.

“Yeah, that’s something we’re taking note of,” Lions coach Dan Campbell told reporters before Wednesday’s practice. “We have to be able to attack the perimeter, define edges and let our supports flow and play. We’ll complete (at Thursday’s practice), we’ll bring it, and that’s the best way.

“You want to improve, you want to work at it? You have to work at it full speed, just like in a game situation, and get live reps. So we’re going to continue to do that because we know teams will continue to attack us that way.

Jacobs leads the NFL in rushing and touches and is fourth in rushing yards. Of 44 backs with at least 50 carries, Jacobs is eighth with 3.52 yards after contact, according to Pro Football Focus, and 10th in missed tackle percentage, according to Sports Info Solutions.

Detroit’s defense is 27th in missed tackle percentage, according to PFF.

“Very physical. They fly as a unit,” Jacobs said. “They have a lot of guys who have played a lot of high-level ball. This will be one of those games. This will be a playoff type game. We’ll see. We’ll see how it goes.

Jacobs has made 31 tackles this season, according to PFF, compared to 28 all of last year. His yards after contact are the best mark of his career.

It’s not just Jacobs. Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn had to deal with the Packers’ rushing attacks led by Aaron Jones. Jacobs brought a new dimension to Green Bay’s offense, Glenn said.

“There’s something about acquiring a back that has pellets on the wall and changing the mindset,” Glenn told reporters Thursday. “To see how good he is in the NFL and the violent, physical runner that he is, you just know their offensive line can’t wait to block for this man. There is a difference in how they operate when it comes to the violence and physical nature of the game due to who is heading the ball.

“So, it’s going to be a challenge for us and we have to do everything we can to make sure we stop that because, if you let that happen, it’s not good for a defense to allow a team to run with the ball and then be able to have the play-action passes that they have with those receivers that they have so we have to do a good job in that aspect.

2. Jayden Reed

One of those receivers is Jayden Reed, who has become the Packers’ biggest threat. “This guy is a playmaker,” Campbell said. Reed leads teams with 31 receptions, 507 yards and a 16.4 yard average.

According to PFF, 65 receivers were targeted at least 30 times. Reed is second with 8.5 yards after catch per catch and is tied for 15th with six missed tackles. His 15 explosive plays (running and catching) are just three behind Derrick Henry’s league-leading total.

Of note for this game is that Reed did most of his damage in the slot, where he is eighth with 21 receptions, second with 381 yards, second with 18.1 yards per catch, tied for fourth with three touchdowns , sixth with 8.2 YAC per catch and second with a 142.0 passer rating when targeted.

The Lions are vulnerable in the slot with Amik Robertson. Of 28 defensive backs who played at least 100 slot coverage snaps, he allowed the fifth-most yards, third-most yards per snap and a passer rating of 101.1, according to PFF.

Fantasy football isn’t real football, but the Lions have allowed the most fantasy football points to receivers, according to Razzball.

In the second round of the 2023 draft, the Lions made a deal with the Packers to obtain safety Brian Branch. The Packers traded down one more time before selecting Reed.

“I think the vision was what you’re seeing right now with the way he’s playing,” Campbell said. “This is what you knew; He was competitive, he was explosive, he had speed. … He can locate it, sticky hands, fiery blocker, competitive. Man, he’ll come after you in the running game. And he’s a very intelligent, very intelligent player. He’s coming into his own and he continues to improve and, for me, he’s a strength and we’re going to have to be ready for him and the other receivers.

3. Takeaways

The Packers are 6-2 thanks in large part to Jeff Hafley’s defense, which is No. 1 with 19 putbacks, No. 1 with nine fumbles recoveries and No. 2 with 10 interceptions.

Detroit, on the other hand, is #2 in revenue margin at +10. Only three teams have fewer giveaways than Detroit’s five. The Lions have lost just one fumble and Jared Goff hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 3.

The Packers are holding what they call a “ball meeting” to emphasize the importance of taking care of the football. Lions place a similar emphasis. So much so that a Titans staffer tried to get the secrets to success from Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson after Detroit won the turnover battle 4-0 last week.

“It’s a constant question as coaches,” Johnson told reporters Thursday. “It gets old, it gets redundant but, at some point, I think these guys hear it in the back of their minds when they’re carrying the ball down the field.

“We have a quarterback right now who is playing very smart, tough football. He takes care of the ball. If he presents it to him on the field, he will throw it; he has no problem ripping a dagger or throwing a pole across the field. But the teams we continually see have all this depth, he’s going to check it out. So he’s just very smart and deliberate in the way he attacks coverages right now. This therefore keeps the ball out of danger from an interception point of view.

Goff is playing at just about the highest level imaginable, but he’s been sacked eight times in the last two games and fumbled four times. So there could be opportunities for the type of Edgerrin Cooper-style sack/strip that rocked last week’s win in Jacksonville.

“I think it starts from the beginning, like any game,” Hafley said. “If you can’t stop the race, it’s going to be a long day. Their offensive line is probably the best we’ve seen, and then they have two very good running backs. So we really have to defend our race. They are explosive, powerful and their offensive line is really good.

“They built it the right way. They built it from the inside out, but it has to start with running. Obviously, they have good wide receivers, they have a very good tight end and the quarterback is as effective right now as any quarterback in the NFL. I think they coach really well. I think their entire staff does a great job with their scheme and then what they’ve done with the quarterback this year in terms of efficiency, it’s very impressive.

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